Efforts to resolve the decommissioning impasse were being hindered by the tabling of an Ulster Unionist motion on the issue at the Assembly in the immediate aftermath of Gen de Chastelain's next report, nationalist sources claimed last night.
The motion calls on members "to take note of reports from the Independent International Commission on Decommissioning" and is down for discussion for 31/2 hours on Tuesday afternoon. Unionist sources said it was originally tabled in the name of the party chief whip, Mr Jim Wilson, but it now appears on the order paper in the name of the UUP leader, Mr David Trimble.
Nationalist sources said they regretted the tabling of the motion for the day after the de Chastelain report was due to appear. It could have been tabled for the following Monday, which would have given Dublin and London another week to try to resolve the arms dilemma.
"The place will explode. The DUP and Trimble's own anti-agreement people will have a field day," one source said. In addition, Sinn Fein would be backed even further into a corner on the issue. Sources close to republican thinking said the tabling of the motion in Mr Trimble's name had set back any prospects which might have existed for even a verbal gesture from the IRA on weapons.
Republicans were taking the motion as a step towards a unionist withdrawal from the Executive and were asking themselves what the point was of making even verbal concessions in that context.
There is now a strong expectation in nationalist and republican circles that a unionist exit strategy will be implemented next week, thereby forcing the Northern Secretary, Mr Peter Mandelson, to suspend the institutions immediately instead of waiting a further week to allow time for "mature reflection".
There was said to be intense diplomatic activity on the part of Dublin, London and Washington. Dublin, in particular, was reported to be "twisting Sinn Fein's arm". There is now a widespread belief that Sinn Fein will be seriously isolated in political and publicity terms if Gen de Chastelain fails to report that the process of decommissioning has moved forward.
Senior political sources refused to be drawn on whether modalities for decommissioning were being sought from the IRA, although it is understood these were an item of discussion. It is believed the general may be in contact with the IRA interlocutor over the weekend.
Contacts up to now appeared to have produced little, and usually well-informed sources said that if the general's report were being produced last night it would be negative in tone.
Senior sources on the Dublin side said they had been urging caution on the British government over the suspension, but there has been no great desire to rush on London's part unless the unionists force a move.
It appears that if suspension takes place there is no guarantee the institutions will continue in shadow form. Meanwhile Mr Mandelson said that if the general reported that decommissioning was still "on track", he would be guided by that conclusion. British sources explained that "on track" had to mean "more than warm words".
The expectation on all sides in the peace process is that if the institutions are suspended and a review begun it will be even more difficult than before to secure agreement, with both unionists and republicans deeply suspicious of one another's intentions.
The SDLP Deputy First Minister Mr Seamus Mallon has issued a strong call for the IRA to begin decommissioning immediately. The republican movement could no longer claim the benefits of the ballot box while denying the "imperative to decommission", he said yesterday.
Yesterday Mr John White, a senior Ulster Democratic Party figure, and one of the UDA's representatives with the decommissioning body, called on the UDA to "jump first" by starting the process of decommissioning.
He said now was the time for the UDA to put pressure on the IRA by taking the initiative on disarmament.