Spring's political future in the balance

Mr Dick Spring will inform his parliamentary party on Wednesday that he wishes to resign as Labour Party leader. However, the chairman of the parliamentary party, Mr Michael Bell, has tabled a motion of confidence in Mr Spring's leadership, in a bid to force Mr Spring to remain on as leader until the next general election.

Mr Bell told the Irish times last night that he had put down the motion last Friday, before the presidential election count. "I would like to have the situation decided in specific terms. I don't want to have a toll-on-roll-off situation, since we have to contest two by-elections in the next numner of months," he said.

Mr Bell said he has tabled the motion before the speculation about Mr Spring's leadership, and the resignation of his senior adviser, Mr Fergus Finlay.

"It is time for everybody to say where they stand. Let's get on to a straight line. If there are people there let them come out of the woodwork," he said.

Mr Spring told some party colleagues over the weekend that he had not finally decided on his future plans. A firm majority of the party's TDs and senators, meanwhile, will support Mr Spring on Wednesday if he indicates any willingness to remain on as leader. But at least five members have indicated they would vote against him in a secret ballot.

The party's deputy leader, Mr Ruairi Quinn, pledged his open support for Mr Spring last night. "Dick Spring has been, and is, the best leader this party has ever had. He can continue to lead us for the duration of this term and he will have my full support. It is entirely a matter for himself and he will have my full support in whatever he will do", Mr Quinn said.

The chief whip, Mr Brendan Howlin, was not available for comment.

Notwithstanding the strong support for Mr Spring, however, a large number of the 20 members of the parliamentary party are expressing concern about the "direction of the party", the influence of non-elected advisers and the severe blow to morale occasioned by Dana finishing ahead of Ms Roche in the presidential election.

Sources close to Mr Spring indicated last night that they did not know whether he would quit the leadership. While hoping that he may be open to persuasion, they nonetheless hold the view that the signals are that he will go. "There will be no question of him staying on on a conditional basis", one source said.

Several reasons are being advanced for Mr Spring's decision to consider his options at this point. It is known that the former Tanaiste, who is the longest-serving leader of any party in the Dail, was devastated by the loss of 50 per cent of Labour's Dail seats in the general election last June. He had calculated, at worst, that the party would win between 22 and 25 seats. It returned only 17 TDs. The presidential election result has compounded the problem.

Mr Spring is said to be still exhausted from serving as Minister for Foreign Affairs for 4 1/2 years.

Mr Finlay's resignation will be placed before Wednesday's meeting. It is stated to be an irrevocable decision. Mr Finlay is also known to want Mr Spring to stay on as leader.

In the event of Mr Spring resigning on Wednesday, the deputy leader, Mr Quinn, would take over for one month. The rules of the party, amended at its annual conference last April, provide that the general council and the parliamentary party must meet within 30 days to choose a successor.

The general council comprises 60 members and the current strength of the parliamentary party is 20, including Mrs Bernie Malone MEP and excluding the Ceann Comhairle, Mr Seamus Pattison, and the late Mr Jim Kemmy.

Only two former Ministers, Mr Quinn and Mr Howlin, are viewed as contenders to succeed Mr Spring. Based on yesterday's soundings, it would appear that, with eight of the parliamentary party members coming from Dublin, Mr Quinn would be in a stronger position than Mr Howlin.

Analysis; Profile of Fergus Finlay; Potential successors: page 13