The International Institute of Strategic Studies has warned that President Saddam Hussein could build a nuclear weapon "in a matter of months" if he managed to buy or steal raw materials from outside Iraq.
But today's IISS report says that even with extensive foreign assistance, it would take Iraq "at least several years" to produce fissile material to build a nuclear weapon.
The London-based IISS said the development of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons is the "core objective" of regime in Iraq.
The dictator has also stockpiled "perhaps thousands of litres of anthrax" and is capable of resuming biological weapons production in just a few weeks, the report claims. He has probably a few hundred tonnes of chemical nerve agents, according to a new assessment of Iraq's weapons of mass destruction.
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"Baghdad retains a strong interest in developing nuclear weapons, but it seems unlikely that Iraq has produced, or is close to producing, nuclear weapons from indigenously produced nuclear material," it said.
"This assessment assumes that the known status of Iraq's nuclear capabilities in 1998 was basically accurate and that Iraq was not able to build clandestine facilities for producing nuclear material".
On chemical weapons, the authors of the report said Iraq's capability did not appear to pose a decisive threat against opposing military forces.
Dr John Chipman, one of the authors, told BBC Radio 4's Todayprogramme he believed Iraq had a small force of 650-kilometre range ballistic missiles, which could hit Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Israel, Iran and Turkey. The only way for him to reach Europe or the United States would be by delivering the missiles from a plane, or through some other terrorist route.
The British government is due to publish within the next couple of weeks a dossier of evidence against Saddam that Mr Blair claims will demonstrate that this is a "real and serious issue".
Over the weekend, US President George W. Bush and Prime Minister Tony Blair stressed the urgency of taking action against Saddam at their talks at Camp David in Maryland. Both men argued that doing nothing about Saddam's weapons programmes was not an option for the international community.
Meanwhile, French President Jacques Chirac said Iraq should be given a deadline to let U.N. arms inspectors back or face punishment.
Warning against unilateral action in an interview with the New York Times, he said the United Nations should consider two resolutions, one with a tight deadline for admitting inspectors, and a second on possible military action if Baghdad refuses.
PA