US/ANALYSIS:Barack Obama looks set to win the Democratic nomination but tougher battles lie ahead, writes Denis Staunton
WHEN BARACK Obama made an unannounced visit to Capitol Hill yesterday, he was greeted by well-wishers calling him "Mr President". Obama is now almost certain to become the Democratic presidential nominee but his path to the White House is far less certain and polling evidence offers conflicting signals about his prospects.
Obama is slightly ahead of Republican John McCain in most national match-ups and he starts the general election campaign with a clear advantage in money and organisation. The Republican dislikes fundraising but he has spent much of the past few weeks doing little else, raising $7 million at a Wall Street event this week.
McCain has nothing like Obama's internet fundraising operation, however, and the Democrat's database of 1.5 million small donors should ensure that he retains a big financial edge all the way to November.
The prolonged Democratic primary battle may have divided supporters and McCain has had an opportunity to unite Republicans around him since that party's primary campaign ended. Figures released yesterday by the Democratic National Committee show, however, that the closely-fought struggle between Obama and Hillary Clinton has also been a valuable exercise in party-building.
Turnout in Democratic primaries increased in every state, with Alaska registering the smallest rise at 18 per cent while Kansas saw turnout soar by more than 2,000 per cent. On the Republican side, turnout stagnated or fell in most states, reflecting the unpopularity of the party and President George Bush.
The Democrats have networks of supporters everywhere and Obama's campaign has already shown a remarkable flair for grassroots organisation.
A troubled economy and an unpopular war should also help to make 2008 a Democratic year in both the presidential and congressional races.
McCain has vulnerabilities as a candidate, notably his age and lukewarm support among sections of his party. Obama could be more vulnerable, however, and he has yet to show that he can win the support of working-class white voters, Catholics and other groups that switch their support between the parties. McCain's support for comprehensive immigration reform has made him one of the few Republicans who appeals to Hispanic voters, an increasingly important part of the electorate that has also proved resistant to Obama's charms.
Obama is especially vulnerable in the key states of Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania, where polls show him either behind McCain or in a statistical dead heat.
The Illinois senator believes he can put other states, including Virginia and Colorado, into play but McCain thinks he can win New Hampshire, New Jersey and Delaware.
Both candidates have promised to run a civil campaign about their competing visions for the US but they cannot control independent groups that may choose a more traditionally brutal route. Obama may be more vulnerable because he is less well known to the American public, giving his opponents a better chance to define him in a negative way.