LONDON: A junior ministerial aide has quit his post at the start of what could be a fateful week for Mr Tony Blair and the British Labour Party over Iraq, writes Frank Millar.
Echoing US Secretary of State Mr Colin Powell, 10 Downing Street last night remained bullish about the prospects of winning a second Security Council resolution authorising war by the projected March 17th deadline for full Iraqi compliance with the UN's disarmament demands.
However, Mr Andrew Reed's resignation as Parliamentary Private Secretary (PPS) to Environment Secretary Ms Margaret Beckett underlined dramatically the rising risk of open Labour rebellion should Mr Blair fail to secure it.
An ICM poll for the News of the World confirmed increasing British public support (69 per cent) for military action against Saddam Hussein. However, the poll also carried the warning that just 15 per cent are presently prepared to support a war without explicit UN authority.
Number 10 believes there will be a significant shift in public attitudes once troops are committed to action. And there was supporting evidence for this view yesterday from the Liberal Democrat leader, Mr Charles Kennedy, who insisted it was possible for his party to support British troops, even while it maintained its "critical and cautionary" position on the war itself.
At the same time four other Labour PPSs - three of them aides to cabinet ministers - confirmed they would form the first wave of government resignations should Mr Blair enter that war without a UN mandate. The fact that politically ambitious MPs on the first, unpaid rung of the ministerial ladder should threaten resignation fuelled speculation that another five PPSs and as many as 30 junior ministers might be considering their positions, and again turned the spotlight on those cabinet ministers known to harbour serious doubts about Mr Blair's alliance with President Bush.
With Downing Street seemingly convinced that Overseas Development Secretary Ms Clare Short is fully on-side, the leader of the Commons, Mr Robin Cook, is again being spoken of as the cabinet minister most likely to quit.
Government whips, meanwhile, are nervously awaiting decision-time at the UN in anticipation of another Commons vote, which they have warned the Prime Minister could see the ranks of Labour rebels swollen beyond the 121 MPs who declared the case for war "not yet proven" two weeks ago. Some accounts suggest whips have identified another 50 Labour MPs prepared to defy Mr Blair if he acts without UN approval. However, some of the organisers of the previous, unprecedented parliamentary revolt suggest their number could now exceed 200.
Labour rebels are pressing for a Commons vote immediately following the UN's imminent decision on the second resolution, and one report yesterday suggested the government has not ruled out an emergency recall of parliament next weekend. However, while insisting MPs would ultimately have the opportunity to vote on a "substantive" motion backing military action, Mr Blair and Foreign Secretary, Mr Jack Straw, have carefully avoided promising this would take place before the start of hostilities.
Mr Straw vowed yesterday the British government would not contravene the United Nations and would act in accordance with international law, even as a former solicitor general insisted it would be "flagrantly unlawful" to proceed to war without a further UN resolution.
Lord Archer of Sandwell said military action could only be justified in terms of self-defence, or where the Security Council deemed it necessary to preserve international peace, and contended neither case applied in the current position. His comments followed renewed reports last week claiming the Attorney General, Lord Goldsmith, has advised Mr Blair that the existing Resolution 1441 does not provide a clear and unambiguous basis for military action.
While the positions of parliamentary aides provide no necessary indication of the thinking of the ministers they serve, Mr Michael Jabez Foster, the PPS to Lord Goldsmith, was identified yesterday as one of those threatening resignation.
Mr Blair spent the weekend at his Chequers retreat continuing his intensive round of telephone diplomacy ahead of the UN vote, while Mr Straw faced the cameras to again assert Britain's right to act in the absence of UN agreement. Speaking on LWT's Jonathan Dimbleby programme, Mr Straw insisted: "We reserve the right to make decisions if it is not possible to secure agreement . . . What we would be doing in those circumstances is actually putting into practice the UN's own writ." He continued: "We are one of the founding members of the UN. We stand by the charter. What we have been seeking all the way through is the application of UN law."