The Government's proposed constitutional amendment on abortion may bein trouble, writes Mark Brennock, Political Correspondent
"I have stated in the House before, and it remains my view, that it would be unwise to proceed finally to a referendum unless sufficiently broad, middle-ground support for the proposition is apparent." - The Tánaiste, Mary Harney, in the Dáil, November 20th, 2001.
As the Tánaiste prepares to meet the Taoiseach next week to discuss giving the final go-ahead to the abortion referendum, the results of the Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll published today gives her stark evidence of the Government's failure to achieve the type of consensus for which she had hoped.
In so far as committed voters are concerned, Munster says No, her own PD voters say No, so do supporters of Fine Gael and the Labour Party, and young voters aged 18 to 24 say No. Dubliners, women, better-off ABC1 voters and urban dwellers are more or less evenly divided. Far from the hoped-for consensus, the Government proposal has resulted in familiar division on the abortion issue.
Supporters of the Government's plan to roll back the X case judgment and to protect the unborn from the moment of implantation will point to the popular support for the holding of the poll. With some 61 per cent in favour of holding a referendum and 27 per cent against, they will say, the people are behind the Taoiseach's strategy of holding a referendum to try to put this issue to bed.
But it is not as clear as that. Because of those who believe a referendum should be held, 26 per cent say they will vote No, while 58 per cent will vote Yes, 14 per cent say they have no opinion and - somewhat bizarrely - 2 per cent of those who want a referendum say they will not vote.
In other words, one in four of those who support the holding of a referendum oppose the aim of the referendum. They want a referendum in order to have the opportunity of voting No.
There is still much to play for, with 20 per cent of voters still having no opinion and 6 per cent saying they will not vote. A campaign would give both sides of the argument an opportunity to appeal to these voters, whose decision will determine the outcome.
However, past experience provides the Taoiseach with little comfort in this regard. In 1992 the Government proposal to allow abortion when there was a threat to the life, as opposed to the health, of the mother had a 48/30 margin of support at the outset of the campaign, according to an Irish Times/MRBI poll. However, a poll just eight days later saw the position reversed to a 42/33 majority against the proposal, which was ultimately defeated by almost two to one.
A similar reversal is therefore very possible but not inevitable. There were factors at play in 1992 which do not apply now. In the course of the 1992 campaign the Archbishop of Dublin Dr Desmond Connell, and other Catholic bishops intervened to call for a No vote, thus uniting liberals who thought the amendment too restrictive, and conservatives who thought the amendment too liberal. This time the bishops are "on side" as is the main anti-abortion movement, the Pro Life Campaign, so conservative opposition is likely to be smaller.
However, there is a pattern of constitutional amendments, proposed by governments losing support as polling day approaches. In 1986, early poll support for a removal of the constitutional ban on divorce turned into a rejection of the amendment on polling day. A similar pattern wore down a comfortable pro-divorce majority in 1993 to a wafer thin majority. And in last year's Nice Treaty campaign, pro-Nice poll results at the outset were followed by a rejection of the Treaty by voters.
If this Government's approach fails to put the issue away for a long time, this poll gives some indication as to the direction in which public opinion is going. Because, overall, young voters are the strongest opponents of the Government amendment. Some 47 per cent say they will vote against, 36 per cent in favour, 10 per cent have no opinion and 8 per cent say they will not vote.
One could reasonably speculate that the larger opposition in this group is coming from a liberal, rather than a conservative standpoint, particularly because the most vocal public opposition to the amendment so far has come from the liberal position.
The increased tolerance of a liberal view was illustrated when last year's Labour Party conference - to the initial consternation of some of its leadership - voted to support a Women's Right to Choose motion. There was comparatively little criticism of this event. A couple of decades earlier it would have been seen as political suicide.
More affluent voters, the ABC1 social group, are evenly divided, with 38 per cent in favour, 38 per cent against, 20 per cent having no opinion and 4 per cent not intending to vote. In the less well off C2DE social category, 40 per cent would vote Yes, 34 per cent would vote No, 18 per cent have no opinion and 7 per cent would not vote.
Women are less likely to support the amendment than men. Some 38 per cent of women would vote Yes, 36 per cent would vote No, 20 per cent have no opinion and 6 per cent would not vote. Among men 41 per cent would vote Yes, 32 per cent would vote No, 20 per cent have no opinion and 7 per cent would not vote.
The Tánaiste's dilemma is clear. But for the Taoiseach the choice is also unattractive. Does he go ahead and risk another morale-sapping referendum loss on the eve of an election campaign?
Or, having promised a referendum to the anti-abortion lobby, does he decide that his plan to win support for a middle-ground position has failed and call it off, thus risking the appearance of anti-abortion activists during the election campaign trail, waving placards about broken promises at every photo opportunity?