Britain:Blairites will ask if Gordon Brown can connect with Middle England, writes Frank Millar, London Editor.
Do Labour's heavy election losses in Scotland, England and Wales make a Blairite challenge to Gordon Brown's seemingly assured succession as Labour leader more or less necessary or desirable?
That will be a question exercising nervous MPs, defeated candidates and dejected activists this weekend after a substantial redrawing of the political map of Britain, at the start of a week of major political change that will culminate in Tony Blair's long-awaited resignation statement.
Blair yesterday insisted that the devolved and local results provided "a perfectly good springboard" for his eventual successor to take the party to a fourth general election victory.
"You always take a hit mid-term," said a defiant Blair, observing that the results appeared to be less of a Labour "rout" than had been predicted.
And it was true that the BBC's projected share of the vote for Labour - at 27 per cent - was actually one point better than in the elections fought this time last year. But Blair was speaking before confirmation of Labour's historic defeat in Scotland, its undisputed power base of more than half a century, where the Scottish National Party (SNP) emerged as the largest party in the Holyrood parliament, albeit by one seat.
As the bitter news sank in, Alex Salmond was setting off in search of a coalition partner amid clear warnings that insistence on a referendum on Scottish independence could see him forced to attempt to govern with a distinctly unstable minority administration. With days and nights of hard and complex bargaining ahead, and the Liberal Democrats acting as kingmaker, outgoing first minister Jack McConnell has not abandoned all hope of retaining power.
In a pre-emptive strike, however, Salmond had asserted that Labour had lost the moral authority to govern. And it was hard for Labour to disguise the extent of its loss in what had long been seen, if wrongly, as Brown's personal fiefdom.
Brown's electoral appeal may have been a less pronounced issue in Wales, where Labour losses - combined with gains for Plaid Cymru and the Conservatives - offered no guaranteed return to power for first minister Rhodri Morgan. He last night signalled a readiness to consult Labour members about possible coalition deals with other parties, as the possibility of an alliance involving Plaid, the Tories and the Liberal Democrats was again being canvassed.
However, the recurring question about Brown's ability to emulate Tony Blair in connecting with so-called Middle England was bound to be exercising unconvinced Blairites, as David Cameron's Conservatives trumpeted their first significant advances in the north-west of England.
Possible Labour leadership contender John Reid admitted the Tories were faring better under Cameron than they did under William Hague, Iain Duncan Smith and Michael Howard. But he maintained they were not a general election-winning team, despite their projected share of the national vote at 40 per cent for the second year running, a full 13 points ahead of Labour.
As the Conservatives entrenched their position as the largest party in local government, however, Reid's Home Office shadow, David Davis, insisted the Conservative lead was "more than is normally necessary to win a general election".
It is too soon to know the impact of "the Cameron effect". Brown supporters are right to insist polls showing Cameron with an even more commanding lead over a Brown-led Labour are an unreliable guide at this point, because people do not yet have the choice to make between the two men.
Public disenchantment with Labour is plain, however, and "time for a change" is a powerful message the longer a party stays in government. Reid and Charles Clarke are said still to be considering their options, although few think either capable of mounting much more than a "kamikaze" challenge to Brown.
In which case the next important polls will be the opinion surveys in the autumn, telling whether the public thinks Brown can be the face of change and renew Labour in power.