PRESIDENT OF THE EUROPEAN COUNCIL:
Herman Van Rompuy: prime minister of Belgium.
The centre-right Van Rompuy has been in power as head of a five-party coalition for less than a year.
As a relative newcomer to top-flight European politics, Van Rompuy may yet prevail as the “least offensive candidate”, meaning he has less political or interpersonal baggage around the council table than rival candidates.
Van Rompuy is multilingual, a clear asset as a potential head of a 27-member union.
An intellectual figure who lists the books he is reading on his personal website, he writes haikus in his spare time.
Tony Blair: former British prime minister.
Blair was the early favourite for the presidency, presenting the possibility that the post would go to a forceful political figure with a significant international presence.
His candidacy appears to have been undone, however, by the prime role he took in the invasion of Iraq, which remains deeply unpopular throughout much of Europe.
Jean-Claude Juncker: prime minister of Luxembourg.
An ardent federalist who has been in power for more than a decade, Juncker remains an outside prospect, not least because of his testy relationships with France and Britain.
Vaira Vike-Freiberga: former Latvian president.
Dubbed the “Iron Lady of the East”, she has no party affiliation and considers herself a centrist.
The drive to increase female representation at the top of the EU’s institutions could help her campaign, although she abhors any implication of tokenism.
Martti Ahtisaari: former Finnish president.
Winner of the 2008 Nobel Peace Prize, Ahtisaari’s reputation as a skilled mediator was forged in Namibia, Aceh and Kosovo. He also had a role in the Northern Ireland peace process, carrying out arms inspections. If EU leaders conclude they could not back Van Rompuy, Ahtisaari would be a figure of substance.
John Bruton: former taoiseach.
Bruton’s campaign was dogged from the outset by the fact that it has been 12 years since he was taoiseach, meaning few EU leaders have any real knowledge of his performance in that post.
HIGH REPRESENTATIVE FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND SECURITY POLICY:
Massimo D’Alema: former Italian prime minister.
D’Alema emerged as a leading contender for the foreign policy post – the holder of which will also serve as a vice-president of the European Commission – after British foreign secretary David Miliband let it be known that he would not accept the position if it was offered to him.
A left-winger adept in the ruthless ways of the political world, his big drawback is that he does not speak English and his French is perceived to be poor.
D’Alema’s past as a prominent member of Italy’s communist movement could prove problematic with EU members from the former eastern bloc.
Olli Rehn: (Finland) European enlargement commissioner.
Taoiseach Brian Cowen is backing Rehn for the post although Anders Fogh Rasmussen’s leadership of Nato could weaken the candidacy of any Nordic contender for the post.
A liberal well-known for his diplomatic skills, he is perceived to have done a good job in his management of difficult accession talks with Turkey and aspirant states in the western Balkans.
Miguel Ángel Moratinos: Spanish foreign minister.
A career diplomat who has served as EU special representative for the Middle East, his centre-left credentials could be important in the final shake-out.
Carl Bildt: Swedish foreign minister.
A foreign affairs heavyweight who has served as prime minister, Bildt would be a very credible nominee.
However, his candidacy could be weakened by his Nordic background, his strong support for Turkey’s bid to join the EU and his tough stance with Russia – which might be perceived as setting the wrong tone in the foreign portfolio.
Catherine Ashton: (Britain) European trade commissioner.
Ashton replaced Peter Mandelson when he returned to the domestic political fray in Britain. She is perceived to have done a good job in the trade portfolio but she is virtually unknown on the global stage.
Peter Mandelson: British business secretary.
A former European trade commissioner, Mandelson returned to London last year to support the troubled government of prime minister Gordon Brown.
He is said to have turned down approaches from “senior European figures” to consider becoming a candidate for the foreign policy post but close observers of the haggling over the top jobs believe he may yet step forward.