Poll sends harsh message to SF

TWO out of every five voters believe that the IRA must resume its ceasefire as a precondition for Sinn Fein's participation in next week's all party talks, according to the latest Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll, published today.

A further 38 per cent of voters, another two fifths, think that IRA arms should be decommissioned before, or during, the talks process.

The Taoiseach, Mr Bruton, and the SDLP leader, Mr John Hume, receive impressive ratings 72 per cent and 81 per cent, respectively for doing all that they can to help find a solution to the Northern Ireland problem. On the other hand, however, 50 per cent and 81 per cent, respectively, believe that the Ulster Unionist Party leader, Mr David Trimble, and the DUP lender, the Rev Ian Paisley, are not doing all they can on that count.

A harsh message to Sinn Fein and the IRA is the main finding to emerge from the poll, which was conducted among a national quota sample of 1,000 electors at 100 sampling points throughout the State. The polling took place last Tuesday, midway between the Northern elections and the scheduled opening of all party talks next Monday.

Questioned about last week's elections, some 42 per cent of voters believe that they have had no effect on the peace process 34 per cent think they have helped it 8 per cent believe they have damaged it and 16 per cent have no opinion.

Asked what preconditions, if any, should be laid down for Sinn Fein's participation in all party talks, some 22 per cent of voters, approximately one fifth, believe that there should be none. Some 38 per cent believe that the IRA must resume its ceasefire. A further 21 per cent implicitly support the Mitchell report, believing that the IRA should gradually decommission weapons as the talk progress. There is an increase in support from 10 to 17 per cent over three months for the view that the IRA should decommission all weapons before the start of talks.

There is little change, since the last Irish Times/MRBI poll in February, in voters' preferred solutions to the Northern Ireland problem. For the second time in Irish polling history, there is no longer a majority 34 per cent in favour of the North becoming part of a united Ireland. Support for a solution linking the North to both the UK and the Republic, the political model underpinning the peace process, remains consistent.

There is a mixed reaction to the British Prime Minister, Mr John Major some 46 per cent believe that he is not doing all he can to find a solution while 36 per cent are favourably disposed towards him.