FRANCE: For the first time, French opponents of the European constitutional treaty outnumber supporters, according to an opinion poll published yesterday by Le Parisien newspaper.
If the referendum, which is scheduled for May 29th, took place today, 51 per cent of French voters would say No to the treaty which was concluded under the Irish EU presidency last year, and 49 per cent would vote Yes.
The poll was carried out by the CSA institute and does not include the prospective votes of 53 per cent who said they were undecided or would not vote.
Six months ago polls showed 69 per cent in favour of the treaty and 31 per cent against. In the wake of the Spanish referendum last month, 63 per cent still supported the treaty.
The sudden drop of 14 percentage points is widely attributed to public anger at the partial roll-back of the 35-hour working week; demands for higher wages, expressed in nationwide demonstrations on March 10th; disquiet over the probable accession of Turkey some 15 years from now; and the desire to "punish" President Jacques Chirac.
The No camp has drawn strength from controversy over the EU's Bolkestein directive, named after the former Dutch EU commissioner Frits Bolkestein, which would liberalise the services sector. The right-wing politician Philippe de Villiers calls it the "Frankenstein directive."
President Chirac this week asked the EU Commission to "completely review" the directive. The French fear it would flood their country with cheap labour from eastern Europe.
Laurent Fabius, the former socialist prime minister and former finance minister who opposed the constitutional treaty in an internal party referendum last December, claims there is a link between Bolkestein and the treaty.
"We must oppose this directive, which is a foretaste of the European constitution," Mr Fabius said.
When the socialists voted on December 1st, 58.8 per cent said Yes. But the percentages were reversed in this week's poll, in which 59 per cent of socialist supporters said they will vote against the treaty. Prominent socialists who continue to oppose the treaty in public are being suspended from the party's leadership.
Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin lost regional, departmental and European elections last year. A No vote on May 29th could end his career.
"You cannot trust opinion polls," Mr Raffarin said yesterday, arguing that a close race would make the French "personally responsible" for their decision. "This uncertainty about the result will create a debate, and the Yes vote needs a debate to win," he said.