Enda Kenny’s buoyancy cannot disguise jitters of his party

Enda Kenny bounded into the Keadeen Hotel in Newbridge Co Kildare, all thumbs-up and bonhomie, declaring that he had "got my mojo back".

The Taoiseach’s tremulous party does not, for the most part, share this admirable brio.

Fine Gael is nervous – about the future of the Government, the durability of the Independents, Fianna Fáil pulling the plug, about Brexit, the budget, the Apple tax ruling. The party is also jittery about exactly how changing its leader will work.

“Mojo” is not exactly the term you would associate with Fine Gael right now. But the party is the mainstay of this unusual Government, constrained by Dáil numbers, certainly, but also occupying more ministerial positions and other baubles than ever. Fine Gaelers have to remind themselves of this now and again.

While the budget, mental health and homelessness were on the agenda in Newbridge, other issues inevitably commanded as much attention.

Senior Government figures signalled a move away from its position that there would be no Nama inquiry, even if Michael Noonan does not seem terribly pleased about that.

The breakdown of relations between Fine Gael and Minister of State John Halligan was much discussed. Last night the party seemed to be getting over its initial annoyance from the extraordinary interview he gave to the Sunday Independent in which he threatened to resign, accused his colleagues of "dirty politics", and challenged Kenny to sack him.

In interviews on Monday the Taoiseach was sharply critical of Halligan, telling him in effect to get on with his job. Pointedly, he said the Government would abide by the recommendations for University Hospital Waterford contained in the expert report, and not accede to the local TD’s demands.

Fine Gael Ministers said Halligan had been in touch with them to downplay his comments, but in truth they have already discounted his future participation in Government. Even if he stays now, he’s not expected to stay long.

Fine Gaelers know losing his vote will make the budget harder to pass. And it is on the budget that the business of Government – not the public theatre – will be focused on in the coming weeks.

The two Ministers responsible, Noonan and Paschal Donohoe, were seeking to play down their options yesterday. There would be some limited resources available for spending increases and about half that again for tax cuts.

As it always does now, the question of Kenny’s leadership came up. He knows as well as anyone that the chattering among his backbenchers – and his Ministers – often focuses on his future. So his approach is to keep saying that he will stay in office far into the future.

Cabinet reshuffle

It is probably the right approach; anything else would open up half a dozen more questions along obvious lines. But Kenny also knows that the statement is not grounded in reality. On Monday he went one better by suggesting that he might even reshuffle his Ministers next year. Most TDs don’t take that seriously.

The fact is that Kenny doesn’t have the capital to do it. There would be a heave against him the morning after, led by the disappointed, supported by the ambitious.

Most TDs recognise Kenny is in the final phase of his leadership. And many believe he knows this himself, and will act accordingly in the not-too-distant future.

Still, some TDs want to send a message that he does not have complete freedom to leave in his own time. Carlow TD Pat Deering told RTÉ that the conversation about a change of leadership should happen at Christmas.

Fine Gael TDs reminding Kenny of this will likely become a regular occurrence in the coming months. That in itself is a remarkable state of affairs.