Backgrounder: What were Ministers told at ‘grim’ but ‘encouraging’ meeting with health officials?

Depending on who you talk to, last night’s meeting of Ministers and health officials was either “grim” or “encouraging”.

On the one hand, the message delivered by the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) and the HSE was absolutely not what the Government wanted to hear. They told Ministers that the reality of the Covid-19 situation right now is that it is so finely balanced that one wrong move or a series of wrong moves could send cases spiralling into an immediate fourth wave that would engulf at least the first half of the summer.

This clearly would have ramifications far beyond allowing people to potentially meet outdoors in April: it could jeopardise the return of hospitality, hairdressers and other businesses which have been shuttered for months. At least that was the implication, sources say.

If late 2020 was about providing a “meaningful Christmas” - a term Ministers are loathe to remember - then this was about saving the summer.

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The view very clearly communicated by Nphet was that now is not the time to come out of Level 5. Not enough people have yet been vaccinated to justify taking any risks.

The cases are still too high, as are hospital and intensive care figures, they said.

It was a scene which has played out a few times now: Nphet deliver the difficult news and tough advice and the Government must decide either to frustrate an already weary public or take a gamble with public health.

Yet others at the meeting took a brighter view albeit one focused on the longer-term future.

New modelling from Professor Philip Nolan was presented which for the first time factored in the benefit of vaccinations against case numbers and the wider situation.

What this modelling revealed, sources say, is that if the Government holds off on making any big moves in relation to restrictions for between four to eight weeks, and lets the vaccination drive pick up at pace as is expected, the risk profile drops off substantially.

Given the announcement to be made by Micheál Martin this evening will disappoint many, there will be a push behind-the-scenes today to get this modelling information released to the public so people can see for themselves what the pay-off is for holding on a little bit longer.

Gradual

After health officials left the meeting last night, Ministers discussed how to proceed politically. One source said everyone has “one little thing” that they want to add in on top of what has been flagged but all those things add up in terms of risk. The thinking is to proceed with extreme caution and announce a plan that will see a gradual and phased easing of certain restrictions.

As has been reported this morning, this includes potentially extending the 5km Covid-19 travel restriction to a county-wide limit from mid-April.

A partial return to construction - beginning with 14,400 homebuilding workers and new childcare facilities - is also expected to commence from April 12th. Outdoor non-contact training and activities for under 18s are also expected to resume at the same time. Non-contact sports such as tennis and golf are also expected to be allowed after the middle of April.

The Cabinet will meet at 1pm to rubber-stamp these proposals. The immediate task is to get the next couple of weeks right and, in the hopes that all vaccines arrive as promised, move towards a wider reopening in the summer.