The RUC believed that civil rights marches had "lost their steam" in Northern Ireland by the summer of 1969 but that the Rev Ian Paisley was, by his policy of counter-marches, playing into the hands of the civil rights activists.
"It [the Northern Ireland Civil Rights Association (NICRA)] would certainly not prosper if Paisley would get the message that he is playing the game their way. . ."
This is contained in a note prepared for the Northern Ireland government of Major James Chichester-Clark in July 1969 just released in Belfast.
RUC headquarters was responding to a query from the secretary to the minister of home affairs as to whether the civil rights movement would "dissolve gradually or. . . remain a coherent, if troublesome, force in Northern Ireland" for the future.
In a five-page assessment, county inspector David Johnston stressed the coalition nature of the civil rights movement and the declining numbers at recent marches.
The county inspector stated that any assessment of the movement must take account of the various groups under the civil rights umbrella who influenced its policies and "cash in on the emotional groundswell of the almost wholly Catholic masses" who supported its events. "These are the republicans, nationalists, extreme leftists such as communists and People's Democracy, Trotskyites and the Derry Citizens' Action Committee. It is between these we find the present struggle for power, though not always in the form of the moderates versus the militants."
As far back as January 1969, he went on, a civil rights document had warned that it would be futile "to continue marching and nothing else" and had suggested a campaign of civil disobedience including picketing, strikes and non-payment of taxes. The reopening of the movement's "Back to the Streets" campaign recently in Strabane and Newry seemed to bear out the document's prediction, with just over one thousand demonstrators at the Newry march.
In both cases there was little or no danger from Protestant confrontation this time and no bans or rerouting. "Otherwise," Johnston wrote, "turnouts might have been as of yore."
This suggested that marches "have lost steam" though the real measure of this yardstick would come with Austin Currie's civil rights anniversary march in Dungannon on August 24th and John Hume's planned anniversary rally in Derry on October 5th. In Derry, the RUC officer went on, "much will depend on the discipline over his hooligan element and [ Eamonn] McCann's radicals." Much would turn also on the tactics of Dr Paisley, who had now decided to go back to the streets, starting with Newry.
"If the reverend gentleman could only be persuaded to leave it to the government and police, as he has been doing since his release [ from prison], the civil rights attendances would probably continue to fall away. Civil rights only feeds and thrives on such opposition. But I presume he too feels he must lead again to survive."
The RUC believed, Johnston went on, that the NICRA was now in the throes of a power struggle between its divergent elements, a development triggered by the Stormont government's promise of political reforms: "The government's firm and solemn promise of reform and the actual timetable have brought the movement to a crossroads and a state of confusion. . .
"If the movement is not to wane or founder it must of necessity become more militant - and there must come a new crop of impossible demands. The so-called moderates are caught up in this competition and must show increasing militancy to survive and stay in power.
In composition the movement was and is Catholic, but in the beginning a Protestant sprinkling of idealists presented a broader facade.
"This has now largely been shed, however, apart from an element of radical socialists and communists.
At grassroots the movement has now crystallised into familiar "green" composed of republicans and nationalists, but still containing a vociferous minority grouping of Trotskyites or revolutionary socialists.
"I feel therefore the present struggle for power can best be seen against this background."
The RUC document identified three elements in the power struggle as the nationalists, personified by the Nationalist MP Austin Currie; the moderates of the Derry Citizens' Action Committee and the "Trotskyites" of the People's Democracy.
In the background stood the official republican movement in the shape of the IRA, Sinn Féin and the Republican Clubs, "by no means the least important element". Johnston claimed that "republican headquarters now claims control of two thirds of the executives of all civil rights associations" while five of the 14-strong central executive were known republicans.
The chairman, the Belfast dentist Frank Gogarty, was a member of the Wolfe Tone Society while the treasurer and vice-chairman were strong republicans.
In the view of the RUC the takeover of the NICRA by the republican movement under Roy Johnston was now complete. "Their tactics have changed in the political field and they now resort to infiltration, manipulation and alliance with any group which will serve their purpose, ie to destroy or undermine the existing system of government." Their hand would remain hidden while these processes were at work but their aim remained "a 32-county socialist republic in the Connolly tradition."