In the campaign headquarters of the Women's Coalition in south Belfast, the full list of candidates for the Assembly elections is being analysed. Two members of the Coalition, a doctor and a PhD student, comment that it makes depressing reading.
The largest party in Northern Ireland, the Ulster Unionist Party, has put forward four women out of a total of 48 candidates, while six of the SDLP's 38 candidates are women. Sinn Fein is only marginally better with seven female candidates out of 37. The ratio for the DUP is four out of 37. By most calculations, the Assembly will be at least 90 per cent male.
Around the walls are posters of the eight Coalition candidates. They include the former head of the European Commission office in the North, a university lecturer, a teacher, a journalist, a community worker, and the director of a citizens' advice bureau. A number of them hold master's degrees; most combine careers with bringing up children. By any standards, they are a capable and successful bunch of people, but unless this election produces some remarkable surprises, it is highly unlikely any of them will be elected.
The Women's Coalition was formed in 1996 when the British government decided that elections would be held before the start of substantive political negotiations. Initially a small group came together to lobby the various parties to select women candidates and to support women who wanted to enter politics. They then decided to contest the election, and the "top-up" electoral system meant they won a place at the talks table, as they came in among the top 10 parties. The reaction from women in other political parties has ranged from ambivalence to open hostility, particularly when the Coalition fielded candidates against women from other parties.
Monica McWilliams, the main public face of the Coalition, says they are contesting this election because there is still "unfinished business". Their main focus is to ensure the Assembly works and that all aspects of the Agreement are implemented. Ms McWilliams says that whether any of their members get elected or not, they will keep the Assembly "under surveillance", and will make submissions to the planned review of how it is operating.
She does not accept the Coalition will fail to win any seats, saying that in her South Belfast constituency people are telling her they want change. She emphasises the praise they received for their role in the talks. Senator Mitchell, writing in the Boston Globe in April, commended the Coalition for its professionalism, and said it had made "an enormous contribution".
Having members from all sections of the community helped the Coalition to facilitate talks between other groups, and it opposed the temporary expulsions of the UDP and Sinn Fein, on the basis that one of its three founding principles is inclusion, the other two being equality and respect for human rights.
The Women's Coalition says that certain parts of the Agreement would not have been included if it wasn't for them. They list the Civic Forum, a specific commitment to the right of women to full and equal participation, and sections on integrated housing and education, the rights of victims and the promotion of community development.
If members get elected to the Assembly, it will have to designate itself as nationalist, unionist or "other". The Coalition comprises women from nationalist and unionist backgrounds, and it would have been expected to classify itself as "other". In the Northern Ireland Forum, Ms McWilliams and her colleague, Pearl Sagar, who comes from a working class loyalist area, were criticised by unionists for being pro-nationalist.
"It is too early to say how that will work out," says Ms McWilliams. "We will designate ourselves according to what works at the end of the election. We are made up of nationalists and unionists and we have never denied our identity . . . It depends on who needs the most stability and on how we can best protect the Agreement."
In the event of the Coalition not winning any seats, it will not disband. It is currently drawing up a four-year strategic plan, and intends to contest the next local elections. It will act as both a watchdog to the Assembly and also as a lobby group, promoting its own policies. McWilliams says there will be no shortage of work. "The political divisions between nationalists and unionists will be resolved much sooner than the equality issue between men and women."
Looking into the future, Ms McWilliams sees the possibility of the Women's Coalition becoming part of a new political grouping. She says many Catholics like "new loyalism" and that if republicans become more labour-orientated, there would be a possibility of a "people's coalition" being formed. All that, however, is a long way in the future. Today the Women's Coalition launches its manifesto. It emphasises the basic principles of human rights, inclusion and equality, and stresses the need for all citizens to play a part in democratic life. On bread and butter issues, it focuses on low wages, targeting social need, family friendly policies and local enterprise.
It also calls for the appointment of a minister with responsibility for children and the family. Inequality in the health service should be tackled and the controversial school transfer exam (the 11-plus) reviewed. The manifesto covers all areas from economic development to agriculture, the environment and international policies.
With less than three weeks to go, Coalition members are putting their faith in the electorate. They will have to overcome a certain perception that a vote for the Coalition is a wasted vote, as tribal instincts didn't die with the referendum. The party will get transfers from nationalists but that may prove of limited use if it doesn't get a sufficient number of first preference votes. Ms McWilliams believes the exceptionally high turnout at the referendum will be repeated and the Coalition will benefit from these voters who feel "politically homeless".
It will also be relying on the votes of men. Three of the eight campaign managers are male and there are also many men among some 300 volunteers working on the canvass. The Coalition could certainly not be faulted for a lack of determination. A senior member explains the motivation. "If the Ulster Unionist Party only selects four female candidates, how are women supposed to rely on them?"