No deal on US presence in Iraq

MIDDLE EAST: US SECRETARY of State Condoleezza Rice and Iraqi foreign minister Hoshyar Zebari declared yesterday that Washington…

MIDDLE EAST:US SECRETARY of State Condoleezza Rice and Iraqi foreign minister Hoshyar Zebari declared yesterday that Washington and Baghdad have not yet reached agreement on the status of US forces in Iraq after expiry of the UN mandate at the end of the year.

"We have agreed that some goals, some aspirational timetables for how [withdrawal] might unfold, are well worth having in such an agreement," said Ms Rice during a surprise visit to Baghdad.

Ten months into negotiations, the parties remain divided over the contentious issues of a timetable for the pull-out and on immunity from prosecution under Iraqi law for US soldiers.

While the draft includes a provision committing the US to pull its troops out from Iraqi cities by next summer, this means redeploying to major US bases in Iraq. This may put US troops out of sight, but their continued presence in Iraq is unlikely to put them out of mind of the 72 per cent of Iraqis who want all foreign forces to depart.

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There is very strong popular resistance to the granting of long-term military bases to the US. Lacking credibility due to their failure to deliver security, electricity, water and jobs, Iraq's political leaders are in no position to reach a status-of-forces deal which does not provide for full withdrawal in accordance with a firm timetable, preferably by 2010. They cannot afford to anger the electorate ahead of provincial and parliamentary polls due next year.

In spite of the delay, Ms Rice remained optimistic. She said the common "goal is to have Iraqi forces responsible for the security of Iraq" and argued that the joint-pacification campaign has worked.

"We're not sitting here talking about an agreement to get out of a bad situation. The agreement is based on success," she added.

Any deal must be approved by the US president, Iraq's presidential council, prime minister and parliament. A large number of legislators prefer a limited extension of the UN mandate to an agreement with the US.

Other issues discussed with Iraqi prime minister Nouri al- Maliki and senior officials included the status of 20,000 prisoners held without charge by US forces and the failure of parliament to adopt an electoral law to prepare for provincial elections.

Approval of the electoral law has been held up by a power struggle over the oil-rich city of Kirkuk between its Kurdish, Arab and Turkomen communities.

Michael Jansen

Michael Jansen

Michael Jansen contributes news from and analysis of the Middle East to The Irish Times