Analysis: Too many stations and too few listeners is the main problem for the radio sector, writes Emmet Oliver
Nobody appears to have a credible explanation, but thousands of us are tuning out of radio. Overall radio listenership has dropped to a new low of 86 per cent.
Some blame the decline on the increasing dominance of television, while others believe the growing popularity of DVDs and computer games is the cause. And some believe Irish radio has become so bland that it no longer commands the public's loyalty.
Whatever the explanation, the industry is going to have to reverse the trend soon or stations will disappear.
With ratings slipping at RTÉ in particular, a radical shake-up of Radio One could be on the way, although predictions that Marian Finucane might lose her slot in prime time have yet to be borne out.
If she moves out of prime time or joins another station, RTÉ management would have to look at moving someone else in, Gerry Ryan maybe, or would former RTÉ presenter Ray D'Arcy return all these years later?
One station widely predicted to meet its demise in 2004 was Dublin's Newstalk, but it looks increasingly likely to avoid the gallows. While its listenership figure for 2003 of 4 per cent was relatively low, it has recovered somewhat and staff were jubilant at the results yesterday.
For example, in the last six months of the year, its listenership reached 5 per cent. If the station can build on that, the idea of a talk-based station for Dublin will start to look more convincing.
While the morning programme hosted by David McWilliams is finding it hard to take on RTÉ's Morning Ireland, the station's drive-time show, the Right Hook, hosted by George Hook, appears to have found a loyal audience.
The success of Hook's show, no doubt partially boosted by the rugby World Cup, may be one of the reasons for the serious slippage of Today FM's The Last Word, presented by Matt Cooper.
Previously hosted by Eamon Dunphy, the programme managed to reach 192,000 listeners in 2002, but now has fewer than 150,000. Events in Saipan and Dunphy's role in them probably helped boost audience numbers in 2002. It was always going to be difficult for Cooper to hold the audience at such heady heights.
In the meantime, RTÉ's flagship drive-time programme, Five Seven Live, managed to increase its listenership in 2003.
Outside of Dublin, local stations continue to thrive at RTÉ's - and, arguably, Today FM's - expense.
"Local radio is bucking the trend while the national stations continue to lose listeners. This is due to strong programming and a range of unrivalled, specially tailored advertising packages aimed at the 2.7 million people who listen to radio every day," said Mr John O'Connor, chief executive of Independent Radio Sales, which deals with sales and marketing for independent stations.