Millennium Matters

Q. Are you still banging on about Y2K?

Q. Are you still banging on about Y2K?

A. Yes, and for a very good reason. A recent survey found that 11 per cent of US technology executives are buying generators and woodstoves, and a further 13 per cent of them intend to buy alarms, fencing and fireguns before the year is out, such is their fear of global computer malfunction.

Y2K awareness built up a head of steam over the last 18 months with people driving you to distraction by talking about nothing else. But it now appears that a sense of complacency has set in, and the computer experts themselves are behind the new scares.

Dr Ross Anderson, a lecturer in computer security at Cambridge University, estimates that there is a 5 per cent chance of Britain suffering a massive computer failure and a 15 per cent chance of serious local disruption.

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He himself is planning to stockpile fuel and food at home and recommends heading for Iceland - which apparently is very well prepared for computer failure - if the worst comes to the worst.

Even the Red Cross is now in on the act.

It has issued a series of guidelines in the event of major Y2K failure: "Stock disaster supplies to last several days to a week for yourself and those who live with you, including non-perishable foods, stored water and prescription and non-prescription medications that you regularly use.

"Have some extra cash on hand in case computer-controlled electronic transactions involving ATM cards, credit cards and the like cannot be processed. Plan to keep cash in a safe place and withdraw money from your bank in small amounts well in advance of December 31st to avoid long queues at the bank at the last minute.

"In case the power fails, use alternative cooking devices - but not open flames or charcoal grills indoors - and have extra blankets, coats, hats and gloves to keep warm.

"Be prepared to relocate to a shelter for warmth and protection during a prolonged power outage [cut] or if for any other reason local officials require that you leave your home. Listen to a battery-operated radio or television for information about where shelters will be available."

There is still a lot of complacency around. Just last year Russia's Atomic Energy Ministry spokesman said about Y2K, "We don't have any problems yet. We'll deal with the problem in the year 2000." And yes, that was the "atomic" ministry speaking.

At a recent rail conference convened to deal with Y2K, French railway officials ignored suggestions that they should be checking their railway systems and suggested that Y2K was a British-American plot to subvert the introduction of the euro. And I'm not making this stuff up.

A quick look at the maths involved in the Y2K dilemma shows that there are between 20 billion and 40 billion microprocessors in use worldwide, of which 20 per cent are in commercial systems. This means there are about four billion industrial or commercial chips in use.

If 95 per cent of these are already bug-free (as everybody keeps telling us), this still leaves 200 million industrial chips that can fail. Given the laws of probability, and that 99.9 per cent of these malfunctioning chips have no impact, you're left with 200,000 chips.

If quick thinking or last-minute action catches 90 per cent of these, that leaves 20,000 chips which, if they all fail together, will cause serious incidents. Even again, if 99.9 per cent of these disasters are thwarted, there are still about 20 serious safety incidents waiting to happen.

It may not surprise you to know (although it will never be publicised) that almost every government has already prepared contingency plans to deal with civil unrest if the worst-case Y2K scenario happens.