McGuinness likely to take seat but not without fight from SDLP

The excitement has largely gone out of the electoral contest in Mid-Ulster, where the sitting MP, Mr Martin McGuinness, Education…

The excitement has largely gone out of the electoral contest in Mid-Ulster, where the sitting MP, Mr Martin McGuinness, Education Minister and self-confessed second-in-command of the IRA's Derry brigade in 1972, is one of the highest-profile candidates in this election.

Things were different in 1997 when Mr McGuinness was responsible for one of those air-punching moments for republicans - he beat the DUP's the Rev William McCrea by 1,800 votes. The head-to head contest sparked one of the largest turn-outs - 86 per cent - in Northern elections ever.

Sinn Fein consolidated its hold on the constituency at the 1998 Assembly elections when it increased its share of the vote to 41 per cent with the SDLP on just over 22 per cent and the DUP a close third on 21 per cent.

A largely rural constituency, Mid-Ulster's northern part is in Co Derry while its southern half is in Co Tyrone, with its main urban centres being Cookstown, Magherafelt and Coalisland.

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According to local observers, there has been some discontent among constituents about Mr McGuinness's perceived absence from the area. Dividing his time between the Assembly in Belfast and his native Derry, Mr McGuinness has a constituency office in Cookstown but "is mainly notable by his absence", as one local journalist puts it.

The candidate most likely to benefit from any discontent with the sitting MP could be the SDLP's Ms Eilis Haughey, daughter of the Stormont junior minister and previous SDLP candidate in Mid-Ulster, Mr Denis Haughey. While having little political experience of her own, Ms Haughey has run a very efficient election campaign and is perceived as attractive, articulate and approachable.

While Ms Haughey will not be able to topple Mr McGuinness, Sinn Fein sources admit that she could seriously split the nationalist vote in a constituency which has also one of the largest youth votes in the North.

The candidate with the last laugh in this scenario might yet be the DUP's Mr Ian McCrea, son of the Rev William McCrea, Mr McGuinness's predecessor as MP for Mid-Ulster and current incumbent in South Antrim.

With no Ulster Unionist candidate in the running Mr McCrea will be able to count on almost the entire unionist vote in the constituency, particularly as Ulster Unionist supporters in Mid-Ulster are overwhelmingly considered to be in the anti-agreement camp.

On the other hand, Mr McCrea's lack of political experience could put off some unionist voters who might opt to stay at home.

In the local government election, Mid-Ulster includes the district councils of Cookstown and Magherafelt as well as part of Dungannon council. In Cookstown and Magherafelt combined, Sinn Fein is the strongest party with 10 councillors, closely followed by the SDLP on nine, the UUP on seven, DUP on five and loyalists on one.