THE May 30th elections may be potentially the most important Fever held in Northern Ireland, but they are also certainly the most bizarre.
Apart from the strangeness off the list system being used, the contest is odd in that nothing crucial hangs upon any party getting a majority of candidates elected.
When and if they take their seats in the proposed forum, they will not be voting there on legislation or policies. The functions of the forum, it is stated in the electoral Act, "shall be deliberative only".
The forum "shall not have any legislative, executive or administrative functions, or any power to determine the conduct, course or outcome of the negotiations ... That is official, as plainly set out as it could possibly be.
The elections, in fact, are only peripherally concerned with setting up a forum. The title of the enabling legislation, the "Northern Ireland (Entry to Negotiations etc) Act 1996" implies that.
Its first clause slates that the elections shall be held "for the purpose of providing delegates from among whom participants in negotiations may be drawn In one sense, therefore, it is academic who succeeds in getting the most people elected. All the parties who gain a place at the negotiations will have equal status there.
But in terms of image, credibility and popular acclaim, the old competitive element enters in for the various parties, and most significantly for the party leaders. There will be a big psychological plus for those who can claim to have captured the strongest popular mandate.
Each party, therefore, will anxiously await the breakdown of the poll, which will indicate what percentage of the overall votes it has secured even though this will neither add to nor subtract from its influence in the negotiations.
Yet there is intense rivalry, and it applies not so much between the unionist and nationalist camps, but rather between the various parties within each bf these camps.
The most Herculean struggle will be between the DUP and the UUP for the prize of being able to claim the largest mandate from Northern unionists. This important status ranking has proved unstable and erratic in the recent past.
In the 1992 general election the UUP easily triumphed, gaining 34.5 per cent of the votes cast, as against 13.1 per cent for the DUPE. The UUP remained dominant in the 1993 local elections, securing 29 per cent compared with 17.2 per cent for the DUP. But in the European election of 1994, when the Rev Ian Paisley carried the banner alone for his party, the for tunes were reversed and he gained 29.2 per cent of the votes compared with 23.8 per cent for the UUP's less charismatic Jim Nicholson.
For this reason, Dr Paisley was understandably triumphant when he succeeded last week in getting his name attached to his party's title on the ballot paper. The automatic association of many fundamentalist unionist voters with his name and powerful personality rather than with the DUP should enhance his party's support in those quarters.
Yet Dr Paisley appears to be campaigning in this election for a mandate not to exercise the man date for negotiations which the election is intended to provide. He has already indicated that he will not sit down with Sinn Fe' in even if the IRA ceasefire is restored. His campaign statements so far are founded on negatives, as a series of quote from him last week demonstrate.
"We are not going into this election to negotiate on the Downing Street Declaration ... We do not believe the union is safe under the terms of the Downing Street Declaration."
"We will not be going by any document that flows from the Anglo Irish Agreement or the Framework Document."
"We are not going into any talks to negotiate the union, because the union is not negotiable."
"We will not be sitting down at any table with anybody to talk about the union."
Mr David Trimble, in his first electoral lest as leader of the UUP, will be seeking to capture the trust and support of the vast middle ground of unionism by cultivating an image of reason ableness, seriousness about achieving a settlement, but at the same time firmness and unyielding strength.
As there is a big "floating" unionist vote which has distaste for Dr Paisley's bombast and rhetoric, but will turn to the most militant and strong sounding leader at limes of political uncertainty and insecurity, the outcome of their struggle will depend heavily on the psychological climate in the North as we approach polling day.
How convincing and surefooted Mr Trimble shows himself to be in the campaign whether or not there is another IRA bomb in London whether or not the IRA ceasefire has been renewed the eloquence and conviction of assurances from Dublin and London copper fastening the principle of consent and stability of the union these will all be influential factors.
The "wild cards" on the unionist side are the loyalist fringe parties, the PUP and the UDP. With minimal organisational structures and little electoral experience, they will free fighting an uphill tattle.
But they carry the powerful imprimaturs of the loyalist paramilitary groupings, and their leading, personalities, David Ervine and Gary McMichael, have had plenty of media exposure and have shown pragmatism, authority and openness to dialogue. Both governments are acutely anxious that these parties should gain a mandate to participate in talks. They have held the loyalist ceasefire together so far, and their role will be crucial to securing an eventual political settlement.
Meanwhile, the wheels are being oiled for the inevitable race between the SDLP and Sinn Fein, even though there is no doubt about which will command the majority support among nationalists. The SDLP has secured between 21.9 and 28.9 per cent of the votes cast in the last three electoral outings, compared with Sinn Fe' in's range of between 9.9 per cent and 12.5 per cent.
The key indicators in this battle will arise in specific constituencies and certain head to head contests between individual personalities.
Even though a Westminster seat is not at stake, there will be much interest in the struggles between Joe Hendron and Gerry Adams in West Belfast and between John Hume and Martin McGuinness in Foyle.
The problem for both these parties will be to generate interest and get their supporters out in strength. Neither party wanted this election, which they regard as simply an obstacle on the way to the all important talks, and there fore they will be hard put to dredge up enthusiasm.
For Sinn Fein, however, it is important strategically that it should at least maintain, and at best enhance, its mandate, upon which Mr Adams has based much of his recent case for representation at the talks. And the SDLP, for the sake of credibility and party morale and because there will be other electoral battles in the future cannot afford to concede the field without a fight.
And there were already signs yesterday that there could be a sharp skirmish. The SDLP chairman, Mr Jonathan Stephenson, fired a provocative opening salvo by declaring "A vote for Sinn Fe' in will be seen as a vote for the on again, off again tactics of the IRA, which risks bringing the horror of sectarian murder back to our streets."
The earliest and most enthusiastic starter in this election campaign has been the Alliance Party. Its workers were already canvassing door to door in Belfast over a week ago.
There could be a lot at stake for the Alliance leader, Dr John Alderdice, whether or not the party succeeds in expanding its customary seven or eight per cent of the vote. The one function of the forum for which there is specific provision for a vote is in the election of its own chairman. This will be a crucial post. With his middle ground credentials and his Dublin Forum experience, John Alderdice must have a head start for it.
Before the first such election takes place the interim chairman is to be a member nominated by the Northern Secretary and, again, John Alderdice might be the most obvious choice.
The profile of such a position, and the challenges embodied in it, could enhance his own and his' party's political status, so there considerable incentive for Alliance to throw all their resources into this campaign.
The minority parties will be using the election to jockey for position with each other and make their individual policy concerns', heard.
Mr Robert McCartney, with his" UK Unionist Party, may make inroads into the general unionist' vote in his own constituency of North Down, but his party's prospects in other areas are an unknown factor.
The broad Labour grouping will be trying yet again to establish a base for non sectarian class politics in the North another uphill struggle, in which Democratic Left and the Workers' Party are also involved.
But the minority groups, even though they may not figure in the forum or the talks, have the merit of bringing into the campaign some singular issues and ideas which might otherwise not have been raised such as the Workers' Party call yesterday for a Bill of Rights to be top of the talks agenda.