Joseph (Joe) Dobbs, who has died aged 87, was an Irish-born diplomat who became Britain's leading authority on the Soviet Union.
For nearly 30 years, his reports on the communist superpower were circulated to a small group of high-level policy-makers whose decisions owed much to Dobbs's analysis of Soviet leaders from Joseph Stalin to Leonid Brezhnev.
He served in the British embassy in Moscow for 14 years, making him the longest-serving British diplomat in the Soviet Union. In the course of four different postings, between 1947 and 1974, he served as press attaché, head of the Russian secretariat, and minister. From the outset, he immersed himself in his work, acquiring a remarkable grasp of Soviet affairs that earned him the respect of his superiors.
He retired from the diplomatic service in 1974, but continued to follow events in the Soviet Union. Despite the increase in Soviet exports, particularly oil, to the West in the 1970s, Joe Dobbs was unwavering in his belief that the communist system was not viable and would ultimately collapse. Ironically, this was close to the view of the former KGB chief, Yuri Andropov, who, as Soviet president in the early 1980s, initiated the reforms that were continued by Mikhail Gorbachev. It was too late to prevent the collapse that Dobbs had predicted but had not expected to see in his lifetime.
Joe Dobbs was nevertheless optimistic about Russia's long-term future. Convinced that the Russian people were capable of great things, he endorsed the view of the influential American diplomat, George Kennan, that "there are no experts on Soviet Russia, only varying degrees of ignorance".
Joseph Alfred Dobbs was born in Tunduff, Abbeyleix, Co Laois, on December 22nd, 1914, the son of John Dobbs and his wife Ruby (née Gillespie). The Dobbs family were among the first English settlers in Ulster; Castle Dobbs at Whitehead, Co Antrim, was built by a branch of the family.
John Dobbs was a bloodstock breeder whose business failed in the 1930s. A series of scholarships enabled Joe Dobbs to continue his education, and his studies eventually led him to read French and Spanish at Trinity Hall, Cambridge University.
There he became president of the union and secretary of the Conservative Association. Already interested in foreign policy and conscious of the threat posed by Nazi Germany, he was an advocate of British rearmament. On his retirement as union president, he proposed the motion "that a strong British empire is an invaluable contribution to world peace", but lost by six votes to the future British Labour Party leader, Michael Foot.
Convinced that war was imminent, Joe Dobbs joined the territorial army in 1938, and the royal artillery on the outbreak of hostilities. He learned Italian through interrogating prisoners of war in north Africa. He was among the first Allied officers to land on the southern coast of Italy. Later, in Rome, he was a senior liaison officer with the Italian army. Arising from his services in Italy, he was mentioned in dispatches and awarded a military MBE in 1945.
When the war ended, he learned to speak Russian from associating with White Russian émigrés in Rome. Holding the rank of major on his demobilisation, his knowledge of Russian proved advantageous when he applied to join the Foreign Office.
When first posted to Moscow, part of his remit was to oversee the publication of British Ally, a Russian-language weekly newspaper published by the British government, that was closed on Stalin's orders.
Joe Dobbs was an enthusiastic participant in amateur drama productions staged by embassy staff. He acted in the Terence Rattigan play, Harlequinade, with John Vassall, a naval cypher clerk who in 1962 was imprisoned in Britain for being a Soviet spy.
Joe Dobbs had a deep interest in Russian culture and history, frequenting Moscow's theatres as often as circumstances allowed. He befriended Mstislav Rostropovich and was of help to the cellist when he fell foul of the authorities. He was also a good friend to Nadezhda Mandelstam, widow of the poet Osip Mandelstam.
Apart from his Moscow postings, Joe Dobbs also served in India, Poland, Italy and Yugoslavia. As head of chancery in Rome in the mid-1960s, the future British foreign secretary and sometime novelist, Douglas Hurd, answered to him. He was British consul-general to Zagreb in the early 1970s when Marshal Tito saw off a challenge from militant Croatian nationalists.
Joe Dobbs, who rode to hounds in his youth, was a keen horseman all his life. He took every opportunity to go riding on his postings abroad.
He enjoyed a long and active retirement in Somerset where it gave him great pleasure to ride with the Blackmore Vale Hunt. He stopped hunting at the age of 75, but continued to enjoy gardening, walking and swimming.
Tall and of slim build, Joe Dobbs was a man of exceptional intelligence known for his eloquence and wit. Proud of his Irish origins, he was modest about his many achievements. He was appointed OBE in 1957 and CMG in 1972.
Joe Dobbs is survived by his wife, Marie (née Catton) and by four sons.
Joe Dobbs: born December 22nd, 1914; died September 28th, 2002