Give Me a Crash Course In . . . the new political party

Another new political party? I thought Renua Ireland had captured that space No, it's not Renua. It has emerged this week that three Independent TDs and a Senator have been holding meetings for some time with a view to forming a political party to contest the general election that must be held by April 2016.

Who is involved, and does it have a name? Four people are involved so far: Róisín Shortall, from Dublin North West; Stephen Donnelly, from Wicklow; Catherine Murphy, from Kildare North; and Katherine Zappone, who was nominated to the Seanad by the Taoiseach (at the request of the Labour Party) but who is an Independent. It has no name yet. Perhaps one could call it Slua Nua. The quartet are working on policy and hope that the party will be in a position to launch before the Oireachtas summer recess.

Why is there a need for a new party? Opinion polls have consistently shown that at least 20 per cent of the electorate are unwilling to vote for any of the big four parties and are looking for alternatives. If none of the existing parties comes close to forming a government, they will need to look elsewhere for support.

Wouldn't relying on a lot of Independents mean having to deal with inherent instability and a constant fear of collapse? Many so-called Independent TDs were once members of political parties but then drifted out or were expelled. For many, the idea of grouping together with like-minded politicians is compelling. If it is coherent and well organised it could have huge sway when it comes to forming a government. There do seem to be empty niches in the political spectrum. Renua Ireland has gone after a centre-right vote; this new party looks as if it will be a centre-left party. Donnelly is pro-enterprise and right of centre but would quibble at that description, given his views on social inclusion and community.

Is it different from what Shane Ross is doing? Yes. Ross, the Independent TD for Dublin South, is trying to form an alliance of Independents. Already three TDs – Finian McGrath, Michael Fitzmaurice and John Halligan – have signed up. A number of prominent councillors wait in the wings. Its supporters have very disparate views, ranging from hard left to hardish right. It will fight the election under an alliance banner with an as-yet-undisclosed set of agreed values or policies. The group won't be subject to a whip.

Ross seems to be trying to square a circle here By definition an alliance will reduce the degree of independence. The solution seems to be to make the rules very loose, so each member's status an an Independent can be preserved. This will be difficult to work out. It seems like a branding exercise, with Ross using the force of his charisma to parlay it into something else. The Slua Nua project is more precise. The result will be a new political party.

So whom will it be competing with? First, let's look at the overall pool of votes that might be available. More than one in five voters say they will vote for Independents or for candidates from smaller parties. Conceivably, this will mean that a quarter of the 158 seats in the next Dáil could come from this grouping. It will compete with Ross's group for that vote. In addition it will be looking for former Labour supporters (and those formerly from Fianna Fáíl) who can't bring themselves to vote for Sinn Féin or a far-left party. That pool may be diminishing. There are tentative signs that the bigger parties are regaining territory with an improving economy.

Will it succeed? All three of the TDs involved should comfortably regain their seats. Zappone will, presumably, contest in Dublin South West, which will be difficult. The party's overall success will depend on its slate of candidates, its manifesto and its ambition.