Iraqi cleric warns Bush, Blair over elections plan

IRAQ: An aide of Iraq's top Shia cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, has sent a letter to the US President and the British …

IRAQ: An aide of Iraq's top Shia cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, has sent a letter to the US President and the British Prime Minister questioning the plan for the transfer of power to Iraqis, writes Michael Jansen

Hajatolislam Ali Abdel Hakim Safi warned the two leaders that they would risk an insurrection if Iraqis were not permitted to elect their own leaders and choose their own form of government.

News of the letter surfaced yesterday as the US chief administrator in Iraq, Mr Paul Bremer, began consultations in Washington on his plan for a June 30th handover of sovereignty to an Iraqi provisional government. Under the plan, the government is to be chosen by a transitional assembly selected by provincial caucuses rather than elected.

Hajatolislam Safi said the plan was geared towards the US election campaign rather than designed to serve the interests of Iraqis.

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It is significant that the letter was signed by the hajatolislam, a middle-ranking cleric who represents the grand ayatollah in Basra. This would seem to indicate that Ayatollah Sistani, a moderate who has urged Shias not to oppose the US occupation with violence, is prepared for compromise. However, he is also not prepared to be ignored or sidelined.

On January 11th he issued a "fatwa", a religious ruling, stating he would accept the postponement of elections only if the UN certified they could not be held due to procedural or security difficulties. On the 12th Mr Bremer responded by rebuffing the ayatollah's insistence on direct elections.

The letter, in addition to Thursday's demonstration in Basra where Iraqis called for direct elections, seems to be part of a concerted campaign by Ayatollah Sistani to force Washington to alter its plan. Early this week he told tribal leaders to demand elections and to prepare to "play a great role, just as you played a role in the 1920 revolt" against Britain.

Another of his associates, Ayatollah Muhammad Baqir Mehri, said: "If Bremer rejects Ayatollah Sistani's opinion, he will issue a fatwa depriving the US- appointed council of its legitimacy. After this the Iraqi people will not obey this council."

He warned that going against the opinion of Ayatollah Sistani would create "a very dangerous situation". While the ayatollah does "not approve armed action against the coalition, if he gives the signal everyone will leave their houses and take to the streets," he said.

Ayatollah Sistani can count on the support of most of the 13 Shia members of the 25-member Governing Council, as well as a majority of the 60 per cent majority Shia community.

However, a large proportion of Iraq's educated and professional class is seriously alarmed by the influence now being wielded by conservative clerics who were kept out of power by the British and by the secular nationalist regimes which followed the overthrow of the monarchy in 1958.

A second key battle is brewing between the Governing Council and educated Iraqi women over a vote taken by the council in closed session at the end of December to abrogate the secular family law in force in Iraq for the past 40 years, the most modern in the Arab world, and replace it with Islamic Sharia.

This change was forced through the council during the chairmanship of Mr Abdel Aziz Hakim, leader of the Iran-backed Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, and a follower of Ayatollah Sistani. Women's groups met this week to denounce the action and exert pressure on Mr Bremer to use his veto to overrule the council.

Iraq's Minister for Social Welfare, Ms Nasreen Barawi, condemned the "secret way" such a "sweeping decision" was taken.

Women had expected Iraq's laws to be liberalised further after the fall of president Saddam Hussein, rather than scrapped.

Mr Nasir Chadirji, a secular-minded council member, said he hoped women would continue their protest. "What hurts most is that the law of the tyrant Saddam was more modern than this new law," he said.