The Sinn FΘin Irish-language event in Co Meath this weekend may not be used as cover for an IRA army council meeting on decommissioning, due to pre-publicity in the Daily Telegraph. But senior Government and security figures believe the IRA leadership is, finally, preparing to move on the weapons issue.
There has been no sign of the leadership canvassing opinion among the rank-and-file, which would normally be the process that would be expected before such a major move as decommissioning. Some garda∅ still hold the opinion that decommissioning will not take place.
However, according to senior Garda sources a number of senior IRA figures are now determined that decommissioning will take place.
It is said that some senior republicans, who also hold office in Sinn FΘin, want to see a major, public act of decommissioning. One figure is said to want to see guns destroyed in the full glare of international media attention.
It is said this figure is insisting that such an act is necessary to make up for the damage done to Sinn FΘin in the US after the arrests of the three republicans in Colombia in August, and the further decline in support since the September 11th attacks.
The Colombia arrests and the US public's present aversion to groups with international terrorist links are said to be costing Sinn FΘin's fund-raising wing heavily. It was reported this week that Sinn FΘin had closed one of its offices in Washington, switching its operations to the Friends of Sinn FΘin (FOSF) in New York to concentrate on fund-raising there. FOSF has been highly successful in recent years, raising millions of pounds which is being spent mainly on Sinn FΘin's electoral machine in Ireland.
The discovery of the IRA's links with the Colombia narco-terrorist group, FARC, is said to have rebounded also on the senior figure who had sanctioned and encouraged those links.
The man who directed the IRA's contacts with FARC, which involved sending engineers to Colombia to help FARC build and develop heavy mortars identical to the IRA's "barrack-buster" devices, is also the figure said to be ultimately in charge of the negotiations with Gen de Chastelain's commission. A close associate, said to be the general's contact point with the IRA, is also understood to have been in Colombia in the past year.
It is suspected that the leading IRA figure was, ultimately, opposed to any decommissioning of weapons.
However, the discovery of the IRA links with FARC is said to have badly damaged his standing and prompted the pro-decommissioning lobby on the army council to insist that decommissioning now take place.
According to senior Garda sources, the Provisional IRA is now almost extinct. The organisation maintained a core active-service group which was involved in robberies, punishment beatings, shootings and the assassination of certain criminals. However, it now seems that even this small group has become inactive.
One of the IRA's most senior figures, a Co Tyrone man in his 40s who has never been publicly associated with the political wing, was running an illegal distillery in Co Monaghan which was raided by local garda∅ and officers from the Criminal Assets Bureau in early September. The man is now likely to be served with a large tax demand and may face criminal charges.
Another IRA figure was also involved in the operation, supplying illegally-distilled spirits to discos and pubs where it was being passed off as vodka.
Other important IRA figures are also known to have drifted into private enterprise. A large number of former IRA figures are now involved in the security business providing guards for licensed premises, stores and shopping centres.
Garda∅ say that opposition is weakening and they expect an act of weapons decommissioning to take place. This is opposed by the anti-Belfast Agreement republicans including those in the "Real" and "Continuity" IRA groups.
However, neither group is seen as posing a serious security threat. The "Real IRA" has been infiltrated by the Garda and RUC and its fund-raising wing has been outlawed in the United States. The Continuity IRA is a very small group and has grown smaller as its members gravitated towards the "Real IRA".