NIGERIA: A large shadow of corruption may be cast over tomorrow's Nigerian presidential elections, writes Chinedu Onyejelem
Following the exit of the military after years in politics, Nigeria's new-found democracy will further be tested tomorrow in the first presidential and governorship elections since 1999.
But to many observers the elections are a done deal for the ruling party, the People's Democratic Party (PDP), which is already in the lead in National Assembly elections, held last Saturday.
Three former military generals, from the three main tribes in the country, including President Olusegun Obasanjo (Yoruba), are contesting the presidential election under a multi-party system. The incumbent administration of President Obasanjo is expected to win overwhelmingly in tomorrow's election, which has been dubbed the "battle of the generals".
The contenders for the presidency include the reformist from the Hausa tribe, Gen Muhammadu Buhari, a Muslim. A former head of state, Mr Buhari came to power after the December 31st, 1983 coup, which ousted the democratically elected government of his tribesman, Shehu Shagari, to whom Mr Obasanjo, as a military dictator, handed over power in 1979.
Regarded today as a tribalist, Mr Buhari - the presidential candidate of the All Nigerian People's Party (ANPP) - made an honest attempt to rid the country of bribery and corruption during his time in office.
He is the strongest opponent of President Obasanjo but his ambition to re-rule Nigeria is fraught with difficulties. Last month one of his strongest party campaign co-ordinators in the southeast, Dr Marshall Harry, was murdered in his Abuja residence. Mr Buhari's wife is also facing problems with the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), with her name missing on the voters' register.
Another diehard in the contest is retired Gen Emeka Ojukwu, who is running for the presidency under the All Progressives' Grand Alliance.
As a soldier who fought against the oppression of his people, the Igbo tribe, Mr Ojukwu led the country into a bloody civil war in 1966. Over one million Igbos died during the 30-month war.
President Obasanjo - the only former military head of state to be democratically elected as President in Nigeria - should by now be dotting the i's and crossing the t's in a victory speech.
Having in 1999 returned to power, which he voluntarily relinquished in 1979, his victory will be his third term as Nigerian leader.
The dictator-turned-politician will no doubt secure a landslide victory tomorrow.
He was accused of rigging the election that brought him to power four years ago and experts believe little or no progress has been made either to prevent abuses in tomorrow's poll or to strengthen the integrity of the electoral system since then.
Opposition groups have already accused the party of massive election-rigging, bribery and intimidation at the National Assembly elections held last Saturday. Some parties have also claimed that the ruling party masterminded the disqualification of many of their supporters from voting. Over 7 million voters were disqualified shortly before the election last week by the electoral commission.
Millions of ordinary Nigerians who do not have faith in the political system due to corruption and maladministration by politicians and the military will also not be voting tomorrow. Many of them regard the election as the scramble for the control of the nation's natural resources, and the election means nothing to people battling poverty.
Some states have not paid workers their monthly salaries since December 2002. Electricity and water are in very short supply.
Though Nigeria, a country with a population of over 120 million, is one of the top 12 producers of oil in the world, it has continued to experience scarcity in all basic needs.
In the minds of many people the election means fear and uncertainty. With renewed tension, political violence and assassinations, people believe soldiers will soon return to rule the country.
But developments in many parts of the country strongly suggest the shadow of corruption may be cast over tomorrow's election. In Enugu, one of the 36 states in Nigeria, 17 political parties have threatened to boycott tomorrow's polls over "monumental irregularities and massive rigging" in favour of the ruling party through the collusion of INEC and security agencies in last Saturday's elections.
"The fraud involved the non-availability of result sheets at the polling centres, the use of political thugs to intimidate voters, the interception of ballot boxes on highways and diverting same to unknown locations," said a statement signed by the spokesman for the 17 parties, Chief Emma Eneukwu.
However, whoever and whichever party wins the election tomorrow will still have to face the harsh realities of the oil-rich nation's troubled history. The winner also faces the challenges of reviving the nation's economy, education and social services.