Despite speculation of a "pause" in America's advance on Baghdad, dramatic US advances at the strategic towns of Kut and Karbala were reported yesterday, writes Tom Clonan.
On the eastern flank of the US advance on the capital, it was claimed that the US 1st Marine Expeditionary Force had seized a vital river crossing over the Tigris at Kut, north of Nasiriyah. On the western flank, it was reported that the US 3rd Division (Mechanised) had captured an important bridge over the Euphrates north of Karbala.
The opening of the Karbala and Kut "choke points" would leave the capital open to a two-pronged attack along major highways leading directly to the city centre. Indeed, it was last night reported that some US troops had made a rapid advance to within 30km of the city itself.
This would place Iraqi Republican Guard and Special Republican Guard divisions in the city within range of US army artillery.
In such circumstances, batteries of US M109 155mm howitzers would be brought to bear on Iraqi positions. US Paladin self-propelled howitzers are capable of advancing up to 200km on one tank of fuel whilst continuously engaging the enemy at ranges of up to 30km. Supported by infantry mounted in AFVs and accompanied by Abrams tanks, the encroachment of Baghdad by US troops would represent the beginning of the final phase of the assault on Saddam's regime.
This final approach coincides with the docking in Kuwait City yesterday of the tanks and armour of the US 4th Infantry Division (Mechanised). With a strength of approximately 35,000 troops, the 4th Division can reinforce the assault on Baghdad at a vital moment in the campaign. As these troops race to the Iraqi capital, they will enter the Red Zone - the area around Baghdad within which allied commanders fear chemical and biological weapons may be used by Saddam's forces.
With Baghdad now within range of US artillery, advancing troops will be within range of those biological and chemical agents believed to be possessed by the Iraqi military. This arsenal would include over 350 tonnes of chemical warfare agents, including 1.5 tonnes of VX gas declared unaccounted for by Hans Blix in January of this year.
Consistent with this report, Western intelligence sources also believe that Saddam's forces are in possession of over 200kg of biological agent growth media - sufficient to manufacture up to 26,000 litres of anthrax. Frustrated in their attempts to develop guided missile systems capable of delivering these agents, the Iraqi military could now use conventional low-tech artillery systems to target US troops in this way as they approach the city.
This threat assessment will have been heightened by the recent inclusion of Dr Rihab Taha, or "Dr Germ", Saddam's chief biological weapons engineer, in his war cabinet and will have sounded alarm bells among US and British commanders. The advance into Baghdad will therefore likely be spearheaded by nuclear, biological and chemical (NBC) warfare "reconnaissance vehicles". These would include armoured "Fox" vehicles. Named after the Fuchs NBC reconnaissance vehicle developed in Germany, the "Fox" has been acquired by US and British forces for urban combat in contaminated environments.
Using psychological warfare, Saddam's troops may employ the use of conventional smoke rounds or white phosphorous rounds to terrorise coalition troops and frustrate their advance on the capital.
Unlike the low-intensity combat "raid and aid" approach being adopted by the UK 1st Armoured Division in Basra, the final assault on Baghdad will of necessity be a high-intensity combat operation. Unlike Basra, the Americans will not be able to bypass Baghdad and will be required to capture it, eliminating the enemy and holding ground. In preparing for the battle for the capital, the US military will have taken note of the Russian army's recent experiences with Chechen separatists in Grozny. They will also have taken note of recent Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) incursions into the West Bank and Jenin.
It is believed US units entering Baghdad will make use of Abrams tanks and infantry in much the same way the Israelis employed IDF Merkava tanks and troops in the Palestinian Authority. The Americans, following the Israeli example, are also believed to have acquired a large number of D9 Armoured Caterpillar Bulldozers for the removal of tank obstacles and the destruction of enemy strongholds.
As the noose tightens around Baghdad, US and British commanders, anxious to avert a military and humanitarian catastrophe, will be hoping for the surrender of the city's garrison. If sanity does not prevail and if the remnants of Saddam's military employ weapons of mass destruction in the streets of Baghdad, the consequences will be grave.
Dr Tom Clonan is a retired army officer with experience in the Middle East and former Yugoslavia. He is a fellow of the US-based Inter University Seminar on Armed Forces and Society. He currently lectures in the School of Media, DIT.