Tom Parlon's decision to run in Laois-Offaly changes the political landscape in the constituency, writes Michael O'Regan, Political Reporter
Laois-Offaly should, at first glance, seem like fertile political territory for a Dail candidate who once held the high-profile job of IFA leader.
With its mix of rural and urban, the sprawling five-seater would seem an obvious base for a local man made good nationally in farming circles.
But while his candidacy is a considerable boost to the PDs, in a constituency where they once hoped to have a TD elected, Mr Parlon, despite his formidable credentials, will be no shoo-in. Realistically, his target has to be the Fine Gael seat in his native Offaly, and he will have to take on the Enright political dynasty to secure it.
With the exception of one term, which he spent in the Seanad, Mr Tom Enright has been a Fine Gael TD for the constituency since 1969. In the 1997 election he secured 8,375 first preferences, the second-highest in the constituency.
He is retiring to make way for his daughter, a solicitor and county councillor, Ms Olwyn Enright. The Enright political base is Birr, while Mr Parlon comes from nearby Coolderry, and a bitter battle between two strong neighbouring candidates is in prospect.
Ms Enright told The Irish Times that she welcomed the challenge of another candidate in the area. "When I was selected at the Fine Gael convention, I was confident of taking a seat. I am confident now," she said.
Until Mr Parlon entered the fray, Laois-Offaly looked predictable. Two possible challengers for a seat, Mr Pat Gallagher, a former Labour TD, and Ms Cathy Honan, a one-time PD senator, have retired from politics, so it looked as if there would be no change.
The constituency has for long been a Fianna Fail stronghold, with the Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr Cowen, Mr John Moloney and Mr Sean Fleming currently holding three seats. Fine Gael's Mr Enright and Portlaoise-based Mr Charles Flanagan have the other two.
The former IFA leader's initial flirtation with Fine Gael sent tremors through the Enright camp, knowing that, at best, there are just two party seats in Laois-Offaly, and that his neighbour, Ms Enright, was likely to lose out if Mr Parlon was successful.
The Birr district executive of Fine Gael passed a resolution reaffirming its full support for the two "democratically selected" candidates, Ms Enright and Mr Flanagan. It also warned that the party leader, Mr Michael Noonan, should bear in mind the geographical location of any additional candidate.
Although he has opted for the PDs, Mr Parlon continues to pose the biggest threat to Ms Enright. He will be hoping to build on the PD vote developed by Portalington-based Ms Honan, who polled 3,778 first preferences in the last election.
Since then, however, the PD organisation in the constituency has all but disappeared. Ms Honan's vote, local political observers note, was largely urban, and Mr Parlon's task will be to convince traditional PD voters that a farmer can adequately represent their interests in the Dail.
Mr Parlon's supporters point to the 6,741 first preferences secured by Mr Gallagher last time, arguing that some of them will be up for grabs, given that the Labour candidate, Mr John Dwyer, does not even have a local authority base and is unlikely to poll as impressively as his predecessor. However, to secure some of this vote Mr Parlon will have to extend his appeal beyond his rural base.
Further complicating factors in determining the destination of the fifth seat, which could centre on a battle between Mr Parlon and Ms Enright, will be the destination of the transfers from other candidates, a Tullamore Independent councillor, Ms Molly Buckley, and the Portlaoise Sinn Fein councillor, Mr Brian Stanley.
Private local polls suggest that Mr Cowen will be first home with as many as 11,500 first preferences, with Mr Moloney and Mr Fleming also retaining their seats. With Mr Flanagan, who has a high national profile, on course to retain his seat, the battle will then be for the final seat.
Fianna Fail, and Mr Cowen in particular, are reported to be looking favourably on Mr Parlon's candidacy, given that his victory would effectively mean four seats for the outgoing Government.
In those circumstances, the transfers of the fourth Fianna Fail candidate, an Edenderry councillor, Mr Gerard Killally, could prove significant in a tight contest.
Mr Parlon has some months to establish his local base. Securing the traditional PD vote, poaching votes from others and persuading farmers of various political allegiances that he can do for them in the Dail, and possibly in the Cabinet, what he did nationally as IFA leader, remains his task.