Britain could be the big loser if the reinvigorated rapprochement between Paris and Berlin turns out to be more than a temporary phenomenon, reports Denis Staunton
Yesterday's European Union summit in Berlin sometimes felt like a journey back in time - to the innocent days before Ireland's budget reprimand, the debate over Boston versus Berlin and, of course, the Nice Treaty.
The Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, beamed with delight as he soaked up warm congratulations from his fellow leaders on last week's referendum result. Inside the conference chamber, Ireland shed its recent, truculent image and returned to its traditional role as a meek, bright-eyed recipient of EU largesse.
But the most striking reminder in Brussels of days gone by was the unexpected revival of that ancient motor of European integration, the Franco-German axis.
Yesterday's deal on how to pay for EU enlargement was made possible by a last-minute agreement before the summit between the French President, Mr Jacques Chirac, and the German Chancellor, Mr Gerhard Schröder. The two men, who have in the past done little to disguise their distaste for one another, surprised other leaders by working out the broad outline of a deal on the future of farm subsidies.
Within a few hours it became clear that Berlin and Paris had very different ideas about what the deal entailed and the final agreement took hours to negotiate. But for Mr Chirac there was no doubt about the deal's significance - the Franco-German relationship was back. "When the Franco-German relationship works well, the EU moves forward. When it does not, the EU grinds to a halt," he said.
Under Dr Helmut Kohl and Mr François Mitterrand, France and Germany often agreed a common position in advance of EU summits. Because their interests were so divergent and because they were the EU's largest members, Franco-German agreements usually formed the basis for a deal acceptable to all EU states.
The deterioration of the relationship between Paris and Berlin under Mr Schröder and Mr Chirac is only partly due to the lack of personal chemistry between the two men. It owes much to the difficulties created by "cohabitation", under which the conservative Mr Chirac shared power with Socialist governments.
During his first term as chancellor, Mr Schröder forged a close partnership with Britain's Mr Tony Blair, with whom he enjoys a warm friendship. But the fruits of this Anglo-German partnership have been meagre, and now that Mr Chirac has a government in his own ideological image, Berlin is looking towards Paris with greater interest.
The Taoiseach suggested yesterday that, although France and Germany were willing to co-operate this week in the interests of enlargement, their co-operation could be short-lived. But Mr Chirac suggested yesterday that Paris and Berlin should forge a common position at the Convention on the Future of Europe, which will next year produce a draft constitutional treaty for the EU.
Germany this month appointed its Foreign Minister, Mr Joschka Fischer, as its government's representative at the convention. Mr Fischer, who espouses a federal vision for Europe, will be a dynamic presence at the convention.
He takes a cooler attitude towards Britain than Mr Schröder does and is determined that the convention should not undermine the supranational institutions, such as the Commission, which have been at the heart of the European project.
Most analysts acknowledge that France and Germany can be enormously strong when they act together. Britain could be the biggest loser from a renewed Franco-German alliance, especially as budget issues return to the centre of the European debate.
Mr Chirac has made clear this week that he is determined to abolish Britain's budget rebate, which is worth €3 billion each year to the Exchequer. Mr Schröder will remain on the sidelines during the battle over Britain's rebate, but in the new Franco-German climate there is little chance that he will lift a finger to stop the French president from pursuing his goal.