CONSTITUENCY PROFILE: DUBLIN SOUTH EAST:SINCE THE constituency of Dublin South East came into being in 1948 it has never failed to elect Fianna Fáil TDs. In the 1960s, Seán MacEntee's surplus brought Seán Moore into the Dáil, giving the party two out of the three seats. Moore then brought in Gerard Brady. Now, for the first time – and as a four-seater – there is a real risk that Fianna Fáil, for whom Chris Andrews topped the poll last time, could end up with no representation.
In 2007, Andrews was followed home by Lucinda Creighton for Fine Gael on her first time out, followed by Ruairí Quinn for Labour, and the final seat was grabbed by John Gormley, who came in just 300 votes ahead of Michael McDowell, perhaps helped by the memorable “Rumble in Ranelagh”.
This time out there is no Michael McDowell and the campaign is the poorer for it. But the competition will be just as close. There were four private polls taken before Christmas and all indicated that Quinn and Creighton will be elected with relative ease. Then, there will be a scrap among four other candidates for the two remaining seats.
John Gormley is not one of those four candidates. While he is held in regard by many, he succeeded last time because enough people voted Green Party as they placed a high priority on green issues. Priorities have changed. And people still don’t know for sure whether he has stymied the Poolbeg incinerator (of which you hear little on the doorsteps, even in Ringsend).
Kevin Humphreys of Labour has a chance to make history and capture a second seat in a constituency where the party was very glad to win just one. He did well in the 2009 local elections, polling almost 2,600 first preferences where the quota was 1,893. He is strong in the inner city and he and Quinn are fighting a united campaign with mutually agreed demarcations.
The same cannot be said for Fine Gael. Its second candidate is first-timer Eoghan Murphy who topped the poll in Pembroke-Rathmines in the locals. While Creighton seems assured of victory, she is not taking any chances and the two well-organised campaigns are being run very independently. Which is unfortunate for Fine Gael. Garret FitzGerald and Joe Doyle vote-managed their way to two seats in 1989 on less than a quota and a half.
Murphy, a full-time Dublin city councillor whose previous employment was international arms control for the UN, is personable and determined. If the Fine Gaelers work together the second seat could be theirs. If not, Humphreys will enter the history books.
Despite the sharp drop in Fianna Fáil support, Andrews stands a chance of holding his seat. He has never stopped canvassing since he was elected, behaving “more like a councillor than a TD” according to one Labour Party worker and is strong in the inner city. He might also benefit from the “alphabetical advantage” identified by Prof Richard Sinnott. As per party policy, Andrews is campaigning without a running mate. But flying solo in a large four-seater is not without risk and he will surely worry where the half-quota picked up by his 2007 running mate, Jim O’Callaghan, will end up.
The Independent with the highest profile is Mannix Flynn who polled well in the locals. His transfers could be crucial. Sinn Féin, for whom 27-year-old barrister Ruadhán MacAodháin is running, will miss Daithí Doolan. Annette Mooney is “the only left-wing woman candidate”, she says. Paul Sommerville, who worked in financial services and spread betting, is going for the David McWilliams support while 24-year-old broadcaster-cum- everything Dylan Haskins, who looks even younger on the posters, should scoop up some of the youth vote. Out of 16 candidates only two are female.
OUTGOING TDs:Chris Andrews (FF), Lucinda Creighton (FG), Ruairi Quinn (Lab), John Gormley (Green).
CANDIDATES:Chris Andrews (FF), Lucinda Creighton (FG), Eoghan Murphy (FG), Ruairi Quinn (Lab), Kevin Humphreys (Lab), John Gormley (GP), Ruadhán MacAodháin (SF), Dylan Haskins (Ind), John Dominic Keigher (Ind), Annette Mooney (ULA), Peadar O'Ceallaigh (Ind), James Coyle (Ind), Mannix Flynn (Ind), Hugh Sheehy (Ind), Paul Sommerville (Ind), Noel Watson (Ind).
LOCAL ISSUES: Traffic levels, road conditions, late-night anti-social behaviour, Poolbeg incinerator, but most want to talk about unemployment and tax increases.
VERDICT: FF 1, FG 2, Lab 1