FF wins at a canter after early stumble

FF performance/analysis: Fianna Fáil endured, survived then thrived, writes Mark Hennessy , Political Correspondent.

FF performance/analysis:Fianna Fáil endured, survived then thrived, writes Mark Hennessy, Political Correspondent.

To the victor go the spoils. Fianna Fáil has produced a remarkable election result, one of the most extraordinary in the party's history.

And it will enjoy its celebration after a campaign where it felt beset by enemies on all sides.

The straws in the wind were evident from mid-morning in the RDS in Ballsbridge in Dublin, where the smiles of Fianna Fáil supporters began to get broader and broader.

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One of the first such straws appeared with news that Minister of State Conor Lenihan was going to survive. In the last week, or two, the word on Lenihan, from even within Fianna Fáil, had begun to darken, running alongside as he was, "Mr Tallaght" Charlie O'Connor.

Not only did he survive, but he came in ahead of Fine Gael's Brian Hayes, the man many had tipped to replace him.

Once the celebrations die down and the final seat destinations are known, Taoiseach Bertie Ahern must decide on his next moves.

Over 10 years, Ahern has run two governments and defied every prediction along the way.

Firstly, it was said that he could not run an alliance with the Progressive Democrats. He did. Secondly, it was argued that he would not see out a five-year term. He did, twice.

The past gives an interesting forecast for the future. The Taoiseach is a man who likes stability. While a minority government could be run if Fianna Fáil gets above 80 seats, it would not be his preference.

The battle to decide on a final version of the history of the campaign was furiously under way last night, with Fianna Fáil arguing that all or most of it went according to plan.

One party strategist, Eileen Gleeson, who ran the Taoiseach's tour, insisted that the media had misunderstood everything from the beginning.

Instead of being lacklustre in the opening stages, Gleeson argued that Ahern had deliberately stayed in Dublin, focusing on seats that could be lost or won by tiny margins.

However, there is no doubt but that Ahern did not fire fully into life until after the latest chapter of his personal finances was "parked" for the election campaign. On tour early on in Dublin Central, Ahern was defensive, short-tempered and uncomfortable in the face of - it must be said - some aggressive press questioning.

Days later in Mayo, Galway and Limerick, he was more comfortable though still far shy of the great campaigner that he was in 2002 and 1997. On May 11th, however, there were signs that the old confidence - one that had served Fianna Fáil so well in 2002 and 2007 - was returning in Drogheda. Traffic came to a halt in places and some of the public crossed roads to welcome him to the Co Louth town.

Undoubtedly, Ahern's performance in the RTÉ leaders' debate against Fine Gael's Enda Kenny was significant, perhaps more so than was initially realised, but we will never know by how much.

Given the conflicting views given by voters to RTÉ/Lansdowne Market Research's exit poll, the reasons are many and varied.

Certainly, it was not the debate alone that won it, even though a quarter of all those who voted for Fianna Fáil seem to have decided to do so only in the last week.

But just 14 per cent of voters gave experience of government as one of the deciding factors.

Ideally, Ahern would opt to run again with the Progressive Democrats, particularly now that they have been badly weakened and would come at a much cheaper price.

While it could still happen, it is difficult to see what he would get out of such a relationship given their tiny numbers, even if he is resting on the margin of victory.

The collapse of the Independent ex-Fianna Fáil "gene pool" TDs complicates his life further. However, these are problems that Ahern will happily manage.

The Greens offer possibilities, but a certain amount of political theatre will have to take place before options come into clear focus.

Last week, senior Fianna Fáil figures privately muttered about how hard it would be to agree a coalition pact that would last with the Greens, but far stranger things have happened inside Leinster House.