Fears are mounting that Derry march could lead to renewed violence

IT'S down to the wire in Derry and the question is whether there is any possible new formula, or influential politician, or clergyman, or agency that can resolve what is an incendiary situation.

The dispute over Apprentice Boys marching along Derry's walls on Saturday is being enacted against the backdrop of concerns about the loyalist ceasefire and the IRA's future intentions, and against the fresh memory of what happened at Drumcree and throughout the North last month.

It is well documented that some republican and loyalist paramilitaries are looking for an excuse to return to violence. The issue is how to prevent Saturday's parade from providing the necessary spark for such a dreaded outcome. It's as serious as that.

Last night hope of a compromise was hard to muster although there were continuing efforts to break the stalemate. After the talks between the Apprentice Boys and the Bogside, Residents Group (BRG) broke down yesterday Mr John Hume said there "was still time to go" to find a compromise. He would keep in touch with both sides.

But in three days thousands of Apprentice Boys will mobilise in towns and villages across the North, en route to join their Derry brethren across the river Foyle in Derry's Cityside.

Nationalists may also be heading for Derry to strengthen numbers in what is a predominantly nationalist city. Notices asking local nationalists to provide accommodation for such visitors point to a contingency plan being well advanced for a stand off. A nationalist march organised for Friday night is further adding to the concern and uncertainty.

All the factors, and more, are in place for another Drumcree type deadlock that could plunge the North into civil strife. Derry is the main flashpoint, but there is potential for disturbances elsewhere.

While the Apprentice Boys have been banned from parading down the lower Ormeau in Belfast, it is expected that they will at least stage a token protest on Saturday morning before heading for Derry. Equally, in towns such as Dunloy, Co Antrim and Bellaghy, Co Derry, in any nationalists and loyalists are at loggerheads, over whether early morning parades by the Apprentice Boys should be allowed to proceed.

The talks finally collapsed yesterday just after noon, after the Apprentice Boys and the BRG had met for the fourth time under the chairmanship of the SDLP leader in his capacity as local MP.

The great hope when Mr Hume convened the talks was that Derry would be different from Drumcree, that each side realised there was too much at stake economically, and more importantly, in terms of the stability of the city in particular and the North in general for the sides, not to reach agreement.

Enhancing the initial prospects of a compromise was the fact that the Apprentice Boys were prepared to meet the BRG in the presence of their chief spokes man, Mr Donncha Mac Niallais, a former republican prisoner.

This was in contrast to the Portadown Orangemen and Ulster Unionist Party leader, Mr David Trimble, who would not meet the Garvaghy Residents group, because one of their spokesmen, Mr Breandan Mac Cionnaith, is a former republican prisoner.

Indeed, there was movement. Both sides presented papers and proposals to each other. The Apprentice Boys offered to parade 250 of their Derry members along Derry's walls in a nontriumphalist manner. The Bogside grouping said 13 should march, in symbolic remembrance of the original 13 Derry apprentices. The question of numbers was an issue that seemed bridgeable.

What has so far remained unbridgeable, however, is the matter of consent. The BRG wants a guarantee from the Apprentice Boys that elsewhere in the North its parades will, only proceed with the permission of local residents.

Mr Alistair Simpson, governor of the Apprentice Boys in Derry argued that the local issue had to be settled first, before the wider contentious matter could be addressed.

He said he believed the Apprentice Boys had tried everything possible to reach agreement and there did not seem merit in further meetings with the BRG.

It was a "very sad day" for the city, he said. The Apprentice Boys have done everything they could to bring peace and stability to this city for Saturday," he added. He argued the Apprentice Boys were setting a positive precedent for future negotiation of contentious parades.

One leading city nationalist had some sympathy for his viewpoint. "It seems a bit much that Derry should have to settle the problems of parades elsewhere. Shouldn't we try and solve this as a local issue, and see what develops from there?"

Mr Mac Niallais, however, said that if there was not an all embracing commitment on consent from the Apprentice Boys, they could not possibly sell an agreement to the Bogsiders or to most other nationalists in Derry.

He pointed to nationalist anger in the city following the outcome of the Drumcree stand off when the RUC forced Portadown Orangemen down Garvaghy Road.

"The mood in this city after the events on the Garvaghy Road, the lower Ormeau and here in Derry was such that there was complete opposition to the Apprentice Boys even being allowed into the west bank," Mr Mac Niallais, said.

His comment raises the question of whether nationalists or republicans will try and prevent the Apprentice Boys from crossing Craigavon Bridge on to the west bank of the city. This is viewed as the scenario which could trigger further serious unrest across the North.

Mr Mac Niallais would not disclose the BRG's contingency plan. The group is to meet to decide its strategy he said declining to say whether attempting to close the bridge was an option.