European Union leaders remained deeply divided on key issues last night ahead of a crucial summit in Brussels designed to produce a new constitutional treaty in advance of the Union's historic enlargement next May. Mark Brennock and Denis Staunton, in Brussels, report
With sharp differences on how countries should vote in the Council of Ministers being restated by Germany, Poland and Spain last night, the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, warned that Ireland faced a major task in retaining concessions it has received on justice and defence issues and in retaining the national veto on all taxation matters.
While he was content with the current proposals on defence and other key issues for Ireland, he warned that the pre-summit deals on these issues could unravel over the next two days.
Poland and Germany yesterday cast grave doubt on the chances of the summit succeeding and showed no willingness to compromise in their dispute over the voting system.
Germany wants to replace the complicated system of weighted votes in the Council of Ministers with a double majority that would allow a majority of member-states representing 60 per cent of the EU's population to approve any measure.
Spain and Poland are resisting the change, and Poland's President, Mr Aleksander Kwasniewski, said there was no prospect of compromise.
"If I were to be a prophet today, there seems to be no possibility of an agreement, with such a rigid stance on the part of Germany and Poland's determined and strongly-argued position. If Germany's position is unchangeable, then our position is also unchangeable," he said.
Germany's Foreign Minister, Mr Joschka Fischer, said Berlin would prefer to see this weekend's talks fail rather than leave Brussels with an unsatisfactory treaty.
"No result this year is a lot better than a bad result that would delay or hamper work in Europe," he said.
Italy's Prime Minister, Mr Silvio Berlusconi, who is chairing the talks, said he was optimistic about the prospects of success, but admitted that it would take a miracle to clinch an agreement.
The Taoiseach warned that there had been no movement yet away from a proposal to introduce majority voting on some limited taxation issues, a proposal strongly opposed by Ireland. He also said Ireland could live with majority voting on foreign policy, if the other member-states were moving in that direction.
Privately, however, Irish officials express the hope that Britain's opposition to abolishing the veto on foreign policy issues will ensure that unanimity will continue to be required.
Mr Ahern said that what was on the table was "a good treaty", and he was optimistic that it could be agreed this weekend.
If it wasn't, the Government was ready to take over negotiations when its EU presidency begins on January 1st. His objective was to get a treaty that could be sold to the public as "good for the people".
Mr Ahern said there were about 10 issues still creating difficulties, including institutional issues, seats in the European parliament, the size of the Commission, the nature of future EU presidencies, the presidency of the European Council, the proposal for a European foreign minister and extending the scope of qualified majority voting.
He had no doubt that Mr Berlusconi had "something in his pocket" relating to the dispute over the weighting of votes in the Council of Ministers. This proposal could amount to "postponement or deferment" of the issue to be decided at a later date.
The style of negotiation this weekend was crucial. "If they try to play it long and Nice-style they will get into huge difficulties," he said, referring to the marathon summit in 2000 in the Mediterranean city which finally ended 36 hours behind schedule.
"If you do the style that happened in Nice where you break and you go back and forward it drives people mental.
"In Nice at the end of the day you were almost waiting for someone to throw a punch," he said.