ROMANIA: Romania has pulled ahead of Bulgaria in the EU accession race, writes Daniel McLaughlin
Corruption is still the key issue for EU accession hopefuls Bulgaria and Romania, but there is growing optimism in both countries that they will join the bloc next January.
After trailing its Balkan neighbour in implementing vital reforms, Romania is now seen to have overtaken Bulgaria in the race to be ready for 2007, mostly thanks to an anti-graft campaign launched by president Traian Basescu.
Since he and his allies took power from the former communists in late 2004, most of Romania's 22 million people have been as pleasantly surprised as Brussels by the government's effort to make good on a promise to root out corruption at all levels of business and politics.
Sceptics doubted that the new government would go after the hierarchy of the PSD, the party that emerged from the revolution of 1989 and went on to dominate Romanian politics for 15 years, while shrugging off persistent allegations of cronyism.
That scepticism was shaken last month when prosecutors indicted former prime minister Adrian Nastase on corruption charges related to property deals, and he was forced to step down as parliamentary speaker by his own party.
Other former ministers and influential businessmen have also been charged with graft and, like Mr Nastase, vehemently deny the accusations.
But Paul Baran, executive director at the Romania Think Tank, says it is not enough simply to press charges against such characters - convictions must follow.
"Important institutional changes have certainly been made and key cases have been brought against prominent people, but few have actually been prosecuted yet," he said.
"Romanians won't really believe things have changed for good until they feel that they are well-protected by the law - that their money is protected from corruption." Justice minister Monica Macovei also faces a fierce fight to dislodge the old guard from key positions in the judiciary and particularly the constitutional court, which has blocked government reforms aimed at bringing some new blood to an organ packed with PSD appointees.
Last week, EU enlargement commissioner Olli Rehn urged both candidate nations to "go the last mile" to ensure readiness for 2007, but praised Mr Basescu's government for revitalising a bid that was at one stage struggling badly.
"In Romania there has been a sea change in the last 14 months thanks to the rigorous conditionality that the EU has applied and stubborn efforts . . . to pursue judicial reform and fight against corruption," Mr Rehn said.
But he was more cautious in his assessment of Bulgaria, after an international transparency watchdog reported that corruption had actually increased there last year.
"This week and next, Bulgaria is going to have crucial votes in parliament, which may have a positive impact on the country's ability to show concrete results in the fight against corruption," he said, referring to proposed changes to the country's constitution.
Bulgaria's parliament did approve amendments that aim to increase accountability in the country's lumbering courts and prosecution service, which have failed to reduce the grip of organised crime on every level of business and politics.
Mafia killings blight the country of eight million people, but the authorities have failed to convict a single suspect for a string of underworld hits that have killed some 150 people since 2001, including customs officials, businessmen and Bulgaria's top banker.
"Brussels is mainly interested in law and order, the police and the courts," said George Angelov, chief economist at Bulgaria's Institute for Market Economics.
"The economy here is over-regulated, giving bureaucrats an opportunity to be corrupt, so we need to deregulate. We also have no track record of putting corrupt people in jail, and we lack both the skills and the will. And thirdly, most of our politicians are seen as crooked and having no incentive to fight corruption," Mr Angelov said.
Despite that grim outlook, he insisted that corruption had generally fallen in recent years and that hopes were relatively high for Bulgaria's new prosecutor general.
Mr Angelov also noted the failure of Bulgaria's agriculture ministry to prepare properly for accession, saying it was not yet capable of absorbing and spending EU funds efficiently or controlling the quality of all its produce for export.
"I am sure Bulgaria will have a positive decision on joining in 2007, but perhaps with some conditionality," he said.
"Agriculture, the police and judiciary may not be ready, so we might be set targets to meet in those areas in 2007 and 2008, and if we miss them we will lose some funding." Whatever the technical criteria for EU-readiness, most Romanians and Bulgarians believe politics will be decisive in whether they join the bloc in 2007 or after a year's punitive postponement.
The rejection of the EU constitution in France and Holland highlighted unease in much of "old Europe" about welcoming in more new member states whose well-educated workers and low costs will lure major investors to the east; and tabloid ire over an apocryphal flood of cheap labour surging west has done nothing to improve sentiment.
"It will be a political decision to let us join on January 1st, 2007, supported by the implementation of most of the technical recommendations," said Mr Angelov. Mr Baran added: "It will definitely come down to a political rather than a technical decision."