Ethiopian troops are massing on the edge of the mountain range that protects the Eritrean capital, Asmara, in preparation for what could be the decisive battle of the two-year-old war.
About 50,000 troops are taking up attack positions at the bottom of an escarpment below the town of Areza, a western military analyst in Addis Ababa said yesterday. At least that number of Eritreans are digging in above them.
A massive assault on the 1,000foot high ridge, similar to the second World War allied attack on Montecassino in the Italian mountains, is expected to start within 48 hours.
"This is the endgame. It's going to be the toughest fight of the war. If the Ethiopians win, you can see checkmate in five moves. The question then is whether the Eritreans will force the five moves," the well-informed analyst said.
Areza lies 13 miles west of Mendefera, a key town straddling the supply line between Asmara and the central front at Zalambessa. "If the Eritreans can't defend from the top of a mountain, how can they expect to hold Mendefera, which is on the plain?" he said.
Eritrea has failed to launch a counter-offensive since Ethiopia launched its surprise attack 12 days ago. Ethiopian troops confounded expectations by attacking along the western front instead of the central border area around Zalambessa, where Eritrean troops were concentrated.
Ethiopia has since penetrated deep into Eritrean territory. It is estimated to have between 80,000 and 100,000 troops in Eritrea. Their success is thanks to superior tactics and air firepower.
Ethiopia is estimated to have at least 30 fighter jets, mostly MiG-23 and recently acquired SU-27 jets, as well as a number of Mi-24 and Mi-39 helicopter gunships. Analyst says Eritrea has just nine air attack planes.
Ethiopia is expected to use its helicopter gunships as well as heavy artillery to punch through Eritrea's defences along the Areza ridge. Eritrea will be relying heavily on ground artillery and its troops' intimate knowledge of the tough mountainous terrain, which has peaks of 9,000 feet.
Westerners in Asmara have warned that it would be premature to write off the battle-hardened Eritrean forces. "The Eritrean army performs well in the hills. They will probably perform well," one diplomat told AFP.
So far, Ethiopia has ignored calls from the United Nations to return to resuscitate the failed peace talks. Yesterday an EU special envoy, Mr Rino Sirri from Italy, shuttled between Asmara and Addis Ababa in an attempt to convince the warring sides to settle their differences.
But diplomacy has taken a back seat to warmongering in Addis Ababa, where the government of Mr Meles Zenawi has been buoyed by recent victories. "The Ethiopians are feeling cocky, they feel they can call all the shots now. The military option has been far more successful than anything they could have achieved through diplomacy," said a western diplomat in Addis Ababa.
Agencies add: Thousands of refugees poured out of Eritrea yesterday as Ethiopia's Prime Minister forcefully rejected appeals for a ceasefire. "We shall negotiate while we fight and we shall fight while we negotiate," Mr Zenawi declared.
He insisted the offensive into Eritrea actually "speeds up the peace process."
In Asmara, more than 100,000 Eritreans took to the streets to protest against the world's "ongoing betrayal" of their country in the face of the incursion. The demonstrators delivered copies of a letter to the UN offices and to the 22 embassies in Asmara.
In Stockholm, mounted police broke up a demonstration by Eritreans blocking the Swedish parliament in protest against what they called world indifference to Ethiopia's invasion.
In Berlin, the German Foreign Minister, Mr Joschka Fischer, said the "senseless" war was harming international efforts to help victims of drought in the Horn of Africa.