Gen John de Chastelain has advised the British and Irish governments that, given the size of the IRA's arsenal, an early start would have to be made on decommissioning if the May 22nd "deadline" was to be met. The British government takes this to mean that decommissioning would have to be under way before the end of March if the terms of the Belfast Agreement are to be satisfied.
This emerged last night as the Northern Ireland Secretary, Mr Peter Mandelson, prepared to steer through parliament the emergency legislation which could see the Northern Ireland Executive, and other institutions established under the agreement, suspended by Friday.
The Sinn Fein president, Mr Gerry Adams, and ministers Mr Martin McGuinness and Ms Bairbre de Brun, will hold a press conference at the House of Commons this afternoon, shortly before MPs consider the Bill which will see direct rule reinstated by the weekend without a dramatic last-minute shift in the republican position over arms.
The Northern Ireland Bill 2000 is expected to complete its Commons stages tonight, and to have passed through the Lords tomorrow night before receiving the Royal Assent on Thursday evening.
The Northern Ireland Office last night said there was a small question mark over the precise timing of the Royal Assent. However, a spokesman confirmed that Mr Peter Mandelson would lay the order bringing the suspension powers into effect on Friday, ahead of Saturday's reconvened meeting of the Ulster Unionist Council.
Mr Mandelson has made it clear the legislative process can be halted at any point if the republican movement delivers "clarity" and "certainty" of its intentions on the weapons issue. There is continuing speculation that agreement on a timetable for decommissioning would see pressure returned on Mr David Trimble to remain in office and stay his post-dated letter of resignation, which became operative from Friday last.
However, with the republican movement under sustained pressure from Dublin, there is no indication Mr Trimble would accept any further delay in terms of actual "product", or that his party's ruling council would agree in any event.
Party sources last night acknowledged that a breakthrough on a timetable for decommissioning "could cause difficulties for Mr Trimble", but while refusing to admit any flexibility on the matter, they insisted that any emerging timetable would have to be accompanied by a definite start date for decommissioning.
While Gen de Chastelain's as yet unpublished report of last Monday did not specify a commencement date, it is understood he did conclude that compliance with the May deadline would require the process to be under way in a relatively short time. British ministers and officials interpret this as meaning an actual start to the destruction or handover of weapons before the end of March.