Donaldson's exodus may be at a price for Trimble

Jeffrey Donaldson was always nibbling at David Trimble's leadership, writes Dan Keenan

Jeffrey Donaldson was always nibbling at David Trimble's leadership, writes Dan Keenan

David Trimble may well clink glasses with friends over Christmas and toast the departure of Jeffrey Donaldson from the UUP. The Lagan Valley MP and Assembly member served his political apprenticeship under the likes of Enoch Powell and James Molyneaux and has clearly learned well.

Ever since he quit negotiations in Castle Buildings in protest in the hours before the conclusion of the Belfast Agreement in April 1998, Mr Donaldson has been the source of much of Mr Trimble's grief - and there has been plenty of that in recent times.

Many press conferences and media events hosted by Mr Trimble centred on Jeffrey - and many others that didn't ended up with referrals to him. Meeting after meeting of the Ulster Unionist Council, crisis sessions of the party executive council and the officers' board centred on Jeffrey's sustained campaign against the Trimble plan to go into government with Sinn Féin while the IRA was still around.

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Mr Trimble saw his Westminster party reduced from 10 to six in 2001. He then suffered the added ignominy last summer of having Jeffrey and two other MPs, including the party president, resign the whip and slide along the Commons green leather benches towards the swelled ranks of the DUP.

To make matters worse, efforts to discipline the rebel ended up in an expensive and humiliating defeat in the High Court. Jeffrey's challenges, sometimes small-scale but always well on target, nibbled at the Trimble leadership edifice.

The election always had the capacity to bring matters to a head.

Mr Donaldson issued his own mini-manifesto. The party leader, with an air of almost forced magnanimity, opted to view Jeffrey's tactic much as a tolerant father treats a small boy and a broken window.

But there was no room for glossing the election results. Mr Trimble, to be fair, scored well - just as he had forecast. The party's and his vote held up, but the DUP increased its take of Assembly members by a whopping 50 per cent. Jeffrey, no doubt to his glee, cornered 14,000 first preferences in Lagan Valley and his transfers were responsible for the sole additional - and anti-agreement - UUP seat.

This emboldened both Jeffrey's standing and his nerve and he called for Mr Trimble to stand aside in a live two-way TV exchange during the BBC's results programme.

Mr Trimble - the legalistic, Nobel-winning leader - could clearly stomach no more. Last week, the party executive told Jeffrey to get in line or get out. On Thursday, it got its answer, but at what price?

Two members have gone with him - his little-known constituency colleague Ms Norah Beare and the more feisty Ms Arlene Foster from Fermanagh. Jeffrey's rebel friends in the Commons remain for the time being. Mr David Burnside said last week he could not join the DUP as he was "no Paisleyite", while the Rev Martin Smyth has so far opted for silence.

The real cost of Jeffrey's departure may yet be weighed in terms of the complexion of the new Assembly chamber and the make- up of a new Executive. If they switch sides, Mr Donaldson, Ms Foster and Ms Beare beef up the DUP Assembly presence from one of relative strength to one of outright dominance. This could cause lasting damage to the UUP - although now more united and unambiguously pro-agreement.

But there's more. Were he to join the DUP, the complex procedures for drawing up the members and portfolio share of any new Stormont executive would hand the DUP four ministries. In addition to the First Minister post, which the party has for the taking if it feels the time is right, it would dominate the Executive with a bloc of five members out of 12. Perhaps one of those portfolios could come Mr Donaldson's way.