Election Diary: One bookie will not take bets on six DUP candidates because they are certain to win, writes Gerry Moriarty
A huddle of DUP politicians was discussing betting odds last week. "Don't let the Doc hear us," said Peter Robinson. Gambling, like alcohol, is frowned upon by the leader of the DUP and Free Presbyterian Church.
DUP MPs Robinson, Gregory Campbell and Nigel Dodds and a couple of party activists were in the group. Dodds looked rather confused as his colleagues explained the intricacies of odds for and against, single bets and accumulators. Obviously the North Belfast MP observes the sanctions against betting imposed by Ian Paisley.
Robinson and Campbell knew their way around the course though. They eventually managed to explain to Dodds that Sean Graham, by placing him at 1/66, really did fancy his chances. That was last Wednesday at the DUP manifesto launch. Now you can't back Dodds at any price. Or for that matter Robinson and Campbell.
When Graham's opened the book they offered odds for all the main candidates in all 18 Westminster constituencies but such was the uptake from punters that they were forced to refuse bets on nine politicians they see as sure fire certainties: the three already mentioned and Ian Paisley, Gerry Adams, Martin McGuinness, Iris Robinson, Pat Doherty and Jeffrey Donaldson.
The initial odds were pretty ridiculous in any event - Paisley was 1/150 and Adams was 1/100 - but there were quite a number of punters who saw a quick killing to be made. For instance one man bet a £10,000 accumulator with those nine politicians as well as the SDLP's Eddie McGrady and Sinn Féin's Michelle Gildernew and Conor Murphy.
If all these candidates won, the maths would bring the final odds down to one to four, which would yield the punter a quick profit of £2,500.
You would think that the £2,500 is in the bag but even dead certs sometimes fall at the last fence.
Take the 2001 Westminster poll. I know quite a few punters who gambled similarly on shorts odds favourites.
On the day of the count they were anticipating their winnings with Adams, Paisley, Robinson et al romping home - but then came Fermanagh-South Tyrone.
James Cooper for the Ulster Unionists was judged to be a shoo-in but Sinn Féin's Michelle Gildernew busted a lot of betting dockets by causing the sensation of the election and winning by a handful of votes.
There are some punters who think a similar sensation could occur in West Tyrone.
Initially the outgoing MP Pat Doherty for Sinn Féin was 1/25 but is now unbackable.
The strange issue here, though, is that scores of punters wanted to place substantial wagers on the independent hospital candidate, Dr Kieran Deeny.
His odds were 33/1 but have now dropped to 12/1. Graham's, as one of its managers Thomas Martin explained, had backers seeking to place bets of £300 and £400 on Deeny that could have won them around £10,000 each. Graham's judged that too big a risk and refused these bets, which after a bad week must provide some comfort for Dr Deeny.
As for the two big battles of the election, Foyle and Upper Bann, Graham's odds have SDLP leader Mark Durkan narrowly winning but Ulster Unionist leader David Trimble exiting the House of Commons.
In Upper Bann the DUP candidate David Simpson is 2/7 while Trimble is 2/1.
Simpson was 2/5 but big punts at those odds tightened his price to 2/7. Equally, Thomas Martin explained, some people saw Trimble's odds as generous and backed him to win.
As Graham's see it this will be a disastrous election for the UUP, a poor one for the SDLP, a good one for Sinn Féin, and a spectacular one for the DUP. Its forecast: DUP - 10; Sinn Féin - 5; SDLP - 2; Ulster Unionists - 1.