Controversy leaves O'Flynn's appeal undented

The party may have silenced him, the wrath of the Taoiseach may have been made plain to him, and his colleagues on all sides …

The party may have silenced him, the wrath of the Taoiseach may have been made plain to him, and his colleagues on all sides in the Dáil may have rounded on him, but, according to private polls, the fact is that if the election were held today, Fianna Fáil's Noel O'Flynn would top the poll in Cork North Central.

Mr O'Flynn's remarks about asylum-seekers, made in this newspaper and elsewhere last month, are now the subject of a Garda investigation under the Incitement to Hatred Act, and depending on which view the Director of Public Prosecutions will take when the file is complete, he could face prosecution in the courts and a hefty fine.

It is understood the investigation, triggered by a formal complaint made by Amnesty International, is nearing completion. This is unlikely to worry Mr O'Flynn, who has remained unrepentant if somewhat less vocal about his views, since the Taoiseach intervened directly to quieten him.

The feeling in the upper echelons of Fianna Fáil was that his description of asylum-seekers was not only embarrassing, but that if the deputy continued unchecked, his words could become a political liability in a constituency where Fianna Fáil could not countenance anything less than holding its own. The latest poll, however, will be grist to the O'Flynn mill and, as far as he is concerned, a vindication of his stance.

READ MORE

The unpublished poll was conducted by the Wallace camp in Cork North Central, and even though, at best, it is only a snapshot in time, it suggests that Mr O'Flynn's popularity has rocketed and that he would command 24 per cent of the first preferences if voters went to the polls right now. This may not be altogether good news for Fianna Fáil, which would prefer to have the three sitting TDs bunched more closely together for vote-management purposes.

Mr O'Flynn, however, is enjoying a quiet sense of satisfaction at the moment and believes the polls are reflecting his performance in the constituency over the past five years.

That's his view, but there are those who believe, even within his own party, that his remarks were calculated to raise his profile at a time when his popularity was shown by other private polls to be flagging and that he played a cheap hand when he introduced the racist card.

Cynicism is a term widely used in connection with his outburst, but even if that's the case, the latest poll would suggest his approach has paid dividends with voters, who don't seem to mind.

Now that the dust on the issue has settled, it remains to be seen how the apparent surge in the TD's acceptance among the northside electorate will translate on polling day. Mr O'Flynn says it would be foolish to read too much into polls at this stage of the election campaign. Nevertheless, the present indications are that he would top the poll ahead of Fine Gael's Bernard Allen, with party colleagues, Billy Kelleher and junior Minister, Dan Wallace, taking the third and fourth seats and Labour's Kathleen Lynch the fifth.

The poll holds no comfort for Fine Gael's Gerry Kelly, hoping to fill the slot vacated by Mr Liam Burke, or for the PD's chairman, John Minihane, who has switched constituencies from south to north in an attempt to capitalise on the support base built up by Mairín Quill.

The candidates are quick to point out that it's early days yet and much work remains to be done in the constituency. Asked to comment on the poll, Mr O'Flynn had this to say: "I am seen as a man who will not be afraid to ask the awkward questions, a person who stands for upholding law and order and who stands up for the people of Cork.

"There's a lot of support here for genuine asylum-seekers, but there's also a lot of concern about the direction this country is taking. There's a lot of anxiety out there about illegal immigrants."

For the record, in the earlier Irish Times interview, Mr O'Flynn said he was against "the spongers, the free-loaders, the people screwing the system" and called for compulsory health checks to prevent illegal immigrants from bringing diseases to this country.

He also called for a referendum on the question of granting automatic citizenship to babies born here to asylum-seekers and said the Minister for Justice, Mr O'Donoghue, had indicated he was prepared to hold one at a future date.

In the other five-seat constituency, Cork South Central, the complexities are somewhat different. Here, the private polls suggest that the Minister for Health, Michéal Martin, will record his biggest ever vote and possibly one of the most impressive performances of any of the candidates in the election.

The fifth seat will be worth watching, but an even more intriguing aspect of this election locally will be how Fine Gael manages its vote to ensure that both Simon Coveney and Deirdre Clune retain their seats. All the indications are that Coveney will come in second to Martin and that he, too, will poll extremely well.

Shrewd vote-management would suggest that in the run-in the Coveney camp will leave entire swathes of the constituency to Ms Clune and that transfers will be carefully orchestrated. The signs are the party is planning a campaign along these lines.

But who will take the fifth? The sitting TD, John Dennehy of Fianna Fáil, the Green Party's Dan Boyle and Labour's Senator Brendan Ryan are the real contenders.