An MRBI poll of 400 voters in the Cork South Central constituency, has suggested that Fine Gael's Ms Deirdre Clune, would lose her seat to Mr Dan Boyle of the Green Party who will be contesting his third general election.
The poll, conducted for the Evening Echo in Cork, sampled first preference intentions only and does not seem to have taken into account that Fine Gael is already planning a major vote management strategy in the constituency. It will be aimed specifically at ensuring that Ms Clune receives a maximum number of transfers from her running mate, Mr Simon Coveney, and that her appeal in predominantly middle-class South Central is also maximised in terms of other transfers. The strategy will seek to bring Mr Coveney in under the quota and to that end, it is expected he will not canvas in large parts of the constituency between now and the eve of polling.
Despite the findings of the poll, conducted some weeks ago, it is by no means a certainty that Ms Clune will be the one to lose out in what will be an extremely tight contest for the fifth and final seat. Some seasoned observers across party lines were predicting yesterday the party's proven record when it comes to vote management, will see her through.
The poll suggests such a strategy will be vital, as Ms Clune is put at 6 per cent, three percentage points behind Mr Boyle who is expected to transfer well from all sides.
According to the poll, the Minister for Health, Mr Micheál Martin, would take 29 per cent of the first preference vote, reflecting both his growing stature as a politician and his undoubted appeal in the constituency. Mr Coveney would take the next highest number of first preferences (18 per cent) - like Mr Martin, more than a quota - and for both parties, the aim will be to make sure that party more than personality is uppermost in the voters' minds.
The poll predicts that Mr Martin's Fianna Fáil running mates, Mr Batt O'Keeffe and Mr John Dennehy, would each secure 11 per cent of the first preference vote, giving the party 51 per cent of the vote, up 8 per cent from the 1997 election, and enough to return the three sitting TDs.
Mr Boyle will be encouraged by predictions that he would be placed fourth in the first preference rankings and ahead of Ms Clune, a position of strength from which he could launch his third bid for a Dáil seat. The danger for Fine Gael is that his transfers are expected to come from all quarters. Although Labour's Brendan Ryan (7 per cent) would be ahead of Mr Boyle according to the 400 people surveyed, the poll suggests that support for him would fall away in subsequent counts and that he could not win a seat.
Ms Kathryn Sinnot, who has not even declared her intention to stand, would win 5 per cent of the first preference vote, if she ran as an Independent, fighting for the rights of the disabled, the poll said.