The President of the Republic of Cyprus, Mr Glafcos Clerides, has expressed scant optimism about the current UN-sponsored talks on a settlement for the divided island. On the eve of his departure for New York, he spoke of a "hardening of the Turkish stance" ahead of the talks. The Turkish Cypriot side had repeated its demand that negotiations be conditional on recognition of the breakaway Turkish Cypriot state and on acceptance of "confederation" as the basis of any settlement, demands rejected by the republic and the international community.
Mr Clerides spoke of "an active interest on the part of the international community to solve the Cyprus problem", particularly on the part of Washington, which is determined to end two years of deadlock before the Helsinki European Union summit next weekend. The US is also exerting powerful pressure on EU members to grant Turkey "unconditional candidacy". Greece, the most enthusiastic advocate of Turkey's accession, seeks to link candidacy to progress in the Cyprus talks and on other issues.
Mr Tassos Papadopoulos, the chairman of the Foreign Affairs committee of the Cypriot parliament, is a member of the National Council, which advises the President on the conduct of talks. He told The Irish Times that those pressing for unconditional candidacy were prepared to "ignore the Copenhagen criteria requiring applicants to have democratic systems and market economies and respect human rights before they can become candidates".
He continued: "While Turkey does have a market economy, its army exercises political control and human rights are not respected. This means that Turkey will gain candidate status without having to meet obligations others have met. Turkey will qualify for funds and membership in European bodies and . . . Ankara will have no incentive to seek a solution for Cyprus."
Ordinary Greek Cypriots have stopped believing in talks as a means to end the de facto partition. An elderly refugee acquaintance reflects the popular mood. When talks began in 1977, Kyria Olympia packed her bags and, believing that I as a journalist might have privileged information, asked me repeatedly whether or not she would be soon going home. She has not even mentioned the talks this time round. Like other Greek Cypriots, she carries on with the life she made after the Turkish army occupied her village, destroying the life she led before 1974.
The events of 1974 have divided the recent history of the island into two distinct periods. From independence in 1960 till the Turkish occupation Cyprus was a unit. In spite of the 1963-64 inter-communal troubles, the island had achieved a rapid rate of development by 1973.
Communal barriers had begun to dissolve and the two sides were moving towards a political settlement. During 1974 the Turkish army captured the north, ethnically cleansed it of Greek Cypriots and compelled Turkish Cypriots living in the south to shift to the north. The island was divided into closed ethnic zones which have developed very differently.
For the 82 per cent majority Greek Cypriots, 1974 was a catastrophe. In terms of material loss, three-fifths of Greek Cypriots were deprived of property and assets in the occupied 37 per cent of the country. This area counted for 70 per cent of national output, 46 per cent of agricultural production, 26 per cent of industry, 65 per cent of tourist accommodation.
A quarter of Greek Cypriots were rendered unemployed, a quarter of them made destitute. The largest port and only airport were out of bounds. Cultural and spiritual losses were, and are, incalculable.
The Greek Cypriots settled the refugees and built new industries and hotels and brought marginal land under cultivation by transporting fertile topsoil from one region to another. Wages were low but productivity was high. Many refugees worked at three jobs to make ends meet.
Today the republic has a prosperous middle-class economy, its people enjoying a per capita income of $14,500. Most families have several cars, shop in hyper-markets and enjoy holidays abroad. Greek Cypriots have become avid consumers and stocks on the recently established financial market have risen more than 600 points this year. The drive for material gain has assumed primacy over the distant dream of reunification.
Greek Cypriots look increasingly to membership of the EU to provide both an incentive to the Turkish Cypriots to reach a negotiated settlement and a measure of protection from further Turkish expansion. The Cyprus government would like to secure a written commitment at the Helsinki summit that the republic will gain admission to the EU even if there is no political settlement on the island.
Mr George Vassiliou, Cyprus's chief negotiator with the EU, told The Irish Times: "We don't say we want to get in without a solution because we want a solution. But if there is no solution, then I believe we should be able to join. Turkey should not be permitted to hold us hostage." Cypriot sources say Ireland continues to support Cyprus's entry whether there is a political settlement or not.
"Cyprus is looking forward to accession on the date the European Union gave us, January 1st, 2003," according to Mr Vassiliou, a former president of the republic. "Before the end of the year we will have submitted our position papers on every single chapter of the accession." The process could cost Cyprus more than $1.05 billion, or 2 to 3 per cent of annual GDP, over the coming three years. Two-thirds of the investment will be in environmental and major infrastructure projects.
Mr Vassiliou said preparing for accession negotiations "helps us to put order in our house and conveys the message to the EU that we are . . . taking our obligations very seriously". Greek Cypriots have no alternative but to take commitments seriously. They live in "half an island" with few resources and depend on their own efforts and connections to earn a living. They also live in the shadow of Turkish tanks and guns.