Civil unrest could undermine Morales's young administration

The Bolivian elite is still trying to foment social divisions, writes Fionuala Cregan in Santa Cruz, Bolivia

The Bolivian elite is still trying to foment social divisions, writes Fionuala Creganin Santa Cruz, Bolivia

“GET DOWN on your knees dirty llama-face Indians and swear your allegiance to the city of Sucre” – the words of a group of young men as they forced 50 indigenous men and women to undress in the centre of a town square and burn the flags of their Quechua identity.

Four months later, on September 11th, 2008, 19 indigenous men and women were killed by armed civilians as they attempted to make their way to a demonstration in support of the government of Evo Morales in the province of Pando.

The incident, described in an independent investigation by the Union of South American Nations as a “massacre”, took place in a wider atmosphere of civil violence.

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Groups loyal to the opposition, largely located in the country’s eastern provinces, occupied and vandalised state property and damaged gas pipelines in an attempt to destabilise the Morales government.

“There are lots of powerful groups in Bolivia with strong economic, political, and social interests,” says Alex Contreras, former spokesman for President Evo Morales.

“Up until three years ago, these groups were the ‘untouchables’; they could do whatever they wanted with Bolivia.

“But now that the country is going through a process of change these powerful interests are being affected.”

Most of the opposition is based in the four eastern provinces of the country – Santa Cruz, Tarija, Pando and Beni – where a large proportion of the country’s material wealth, including oil and gas reserves, is located.

They are also home to Bolivia’s white elite, immigrants and descendants of the Spanish colonisers.

Today there is a strong political and cultural divide between these lowland provinces and the highlands, where most of the indigenous population lives.

In the elections which brought Evo Morales to power in 2005, Bolivians also voted for state governors who in the past had been appointed by the government. In all four eastern provinces, opposition governors were elected.

They have largely refused to work with Evo Morales and in 2006 began a call for autonomy for their provinces.

According to the deputy governor of the province of Santa Cruz, Roly Aguilera, the autonomy they are demanding would strengthen democracy in Bolivia and increase transparency in the management of resources.

“Provincial autonomy leads to greater participation of citizens in the management of state funds. We have introduced a popular participation committee in which local people decide how money from the province should be spent. A centralised system of governance holds back regional development,” he says.

While autonomy is guaranteed in the country’s proposed new constitution which will be put to the people on January 25th, in May 2008 the eastern provinces organised their own autonomy referendums.

Although later declared unconstitutional by the National Electoral Court, the sense of division and “provincial” pride it stirred up in many in this region remains strong, culminating in the September 2008 violence.

Shortly afterwards, the US ambassador, Philip Goldberg, was expelled by President Morales, accused of “seeking to divide the country”.

As a result of the ongoing conflict, the first three years of Evo Morales’s rule have been what Javier Cimientos, director of the Centre for Research in Employment and Development, calls a “crisis government”.

“Evo was elected in response to the failure of 20 years of neoliberal politics in Bolivia and yet in three years in power, his government has not yet managed to effectively reform the state. There has been a lot of rhetoric, but essentially Bolivia is still in a state of crisis,” he says.

Around the country citizens, particularly the lower to middle classes, take to the streets around a range of demands, from salary increases to outrage at inflation and high levels of unemployment.

Constant opposition resistance has compounded a lack of experience of the Morales administration in government, particularly in terms of economic administration and planning.

“The problem lies in a lack of qualified and experienced staff in government,” says Alex Contreras.

“The Movement Towards Socialism party is made up of social leaders who have broad experience of grassroots politics and leadership, but there is a serious lack of technical capacity.

“In many cases this has led to the re-employment of civil servants who worked under previous governments.

“They have technical expertise, but do not support the project for change.

“In other areas, the capacity is just not there,” he argues.

While the nationalisation of the country’s gas reserves has done much to improve the state’s finances, in particular given the high international prices over the past three years, many fear the drop in these prices, combined with the lack of technical expertise, could have dire economic consequences.

In recent months there have been petrol shortages around the country blamed on poor transportation infrastructure and logistics.

And, as the international recession deepens, many Bolivian emigrants, whose remittances played an important role in the economy, are returning home raising fears of higher unemployment.

The government, however, remains optimistic. According to Minister for Planning and Development Carlos Villegas, the Bolivian economy is set to continue to grow during 2009 at a rate of 5 per cent.

This will allow for a massive $1,850 million in public spending and the funding of programmes to eliminate extreme poverty and generate jobs .

With deep-rooted prejudices confronting a process of social change, citizens voting on a new constitution, and a world recession looming, 2009 looks set to be a decisive year for Bolivia.

Fionuala Cregan and Paul Kelly travelled to Bolivia with support from the Simon Cumbers Media Challenge Fund