Change in weather will ease threat from volcanic ash

FORECAST:THE THREAT of eruptions from Iceland's Eyjafjallajökull volcano closing Irish and European airspace will recede from Friday following the arrival of more favourable weather conditions, the Government taskforce on emergency planning has said.

The latest tests from the larger Katla volcano, which has in the past erupted following the subsidence of Eyjafjallajökull, show no activity, the taskforce said.

Speaking after yesterday’s taskforce meeting, Met Éireann forecaster Gerald Fleming said any further eruptions over the weekend and next week will be unlikely to affect flights in and out of Ireland.

“As we go through the weekend looking even through next week that south/southwesterly wind seems to be very solid right through next week, so it seems that once it clears that the problem is gone from us for the foreseeable meteorological future, which is about 10 days.”

There will be a “big change” in the weather on Friday with southwesterly wind pushing the ash plume up over Greenland, rapidly clearing the air over western Europe and keeping it away, Mr Fleming said. “The wind direction will be completely different. It will be a southeast or a southerly experience in Iceland, so the air will go way up towards Greenland and there will be no effect on our airspace or indeed on the skies over Europe . . . once the initial plume is directed away from us, the air space difficulties should cease.”

The plans to reopen Irish airspace at 5am yesterday, and their subsequent reversal, were nothing to do with the weather, or weather forecasting, Mr Fleming said.

“The changes to advice experienced over that last 24 hours they’ve all been connected with changes in the volcanic activity, the weather forecast has been very consistent.”

Assistant secretary of the Department of Transport Maurice Mullen, rejected suggestions that it was a mistake to raise passengers’ hopes by having made statements in relation to reopening airspace before the weather changes on Friday.

“Our concern is to give a perspective, to give a frame where people can plan what they are doing. That’s what we’ve been trying to do, to say what we think is likely to happen. We also recognise that the IAA and the aviation industry want to be able to take every opportunity, consistent with safe travel, to move if possible.”

Denis Daly of the Irish Aviation Authority (IAA) said all decisions made in relation to Irish airspace were based on professional advice from the volcanic ash advisory centre in London.

“Conditions had improved yesterday. We were hoping we would be able to open the airspace from this morning, however because of increasing volcanic activity during the late evening and last night and also the weather conditions, it was not possible to do that.”

He added that overflights of Irish airspace that were above 20,500 feet were permitted yesterday.

The Department of Foreign Affairs Crisis Response Centre is receiving over 1,000 inquiries a day, mainly seeking information about alternative travel arrangements.

An official from the Irish Embassy in Paris is positioned in Cherbourg to help passengers.

The latest estimate is that about 30,000 Irish people were stranded in other countries by the grounding of flights, but that 20 – 30 per cent of those have already returned home by ferry.