IRAQ:Opinion is divided on the reasons for a sharp decrease in violence, and what it means for the future, writes Joshua Partlowand Naseer Nouriin Baghdad
From shop workers selling cigarettes by generator power, to military commanders poring over aerial maps, Iraqis and Americans are striving to understand the sharp decrease in violence over the past several months and what it might herald for the future of Iraq.
The number of attacks against US soldiers has fallen to levels not seen since before the February 2006 bombing of a Shia shrine in Samarra that touched off waves of sectarian killing, according to US military statistics released on Thursday. The death toll for American troops in October fell to 39, the lowest level since March 2006, and the eighth lowest total in 56 months of fighting.
An unofficial health ministry tally showed that civilian deaths across Iraq rose last month compared with September, but the US military found that such deaths fell from a high this year of about 2,800 in January to about 800 in October.
"This trend represents the longest continuous decline in attacks on record and illustrates how our operations have improved security since the surge," Lieut Gen Raymond Odierno, the commander of day-to-day military operations in Iraq, said at a briefing for reporters. The momentum, Gen Odierno said, was "positive" but "not yet irreversible".
Yet is the declining violence a lull in the war or the beginning of a long road to peace? Saleh al-Mutlak, a secular Sunni who leads the Iraqi National Dialogue Front political party, says: "It's temporary because the United States cannot maintain this number of troops in the areas where they are in. And if they do so, there will be no normal life in these areas."
Abdul Amir Jumaa, a shopkeeper in central Baghdad, now feels safe enough to travel to a wholesale market for crates of lemon soda and cigarettes, but does not yet dare send his daughter back to school. He feels he can drive his new Peugeot throughout his Karrada neighbourhood, but not in the Sunni districts across the Tigris. His family's entertainment is watching satellite television at home because they are still afraid to venture to parks or restaurants.
"The people used to talk all about 'security is bad, security is bad', but in the past month, everywhere we go, everyone is talking about how things are improving," he said. "Before the war, it was still much better than now. It has not gotten to that level yet."
In many areas of Iraq, US soldiers are finding fewer corpses on their daily patrols. Some areas once under the sway of the Sunni al-Qaeda in Iraq group have witnessed striking reversals. And Baghdad sounds quieter than last year: there are fewer deep resonating explosions from car bombs and the constant clatter of gunfire has become sporadic. In western Baghdad's Amiriya district, where 14 US soldiers were killed in May alone, a roadside bomb has not exploded since August 7th.
"The local population has decided that the objectives of al-Qaeda are not consistent with their goals," says Lieut Col Dale Kuehl, the battalion commander in the area.
Although there is a need for improved rubbish collection, electrical and sewage systems, and for a tangible commitment from Iraq's Shia-led government to help Sunni neighbourhoods, Kuehl said, the drop in violence has dramatically improved what soldiers call the "atmospherics" of the neighbourhood: there are more pedestrians, shoppers and vehicles on the streets.
"I have eaten dinner in several homes and even went to a wedding. None of this would have been feasible six months ago," he said.
American soldiers counted an average of 275 murders a week in northwest Baghdad; now the weekly average is down to 10 to 15, said Lieut Col Steven Miska, a deputy brigade commander stationed in the Shia enclave of Kadhimiya. One factor, he said, was the public decision of radical Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr to "freeze" for six months the activities of his Mahdi army militia.
"The overall trend is very heartening, obviously, but I would definitely shy away from trying to attribute it to one particular thing in general," Miska says.
Some US military commanders say that US president George Bush's decision to send about 30,000 additional soldiers to Iraq, and their move from sprawling bases to small outposts in violent neighbourhoods, played a leading role in the decline. Iraqi and US officials also argue that the drop in attacks by al-Qaeda in Iraq stemmed mostly from the decision by other Sunni insurgent groups to embrace a partnership with US soldiers and abandon their complicity with al-Qaeda in Iraq's campaign.
The resulting new armed groups, known by the American military as volunteers or concerned local citizens, have taken the place of a sometimes deficient, corrupt or nonexistent Iraqi police force.
Even with lower casualty numbers, the quantity of violence indicates that militias and insurgents remain active in many areas. Large parts of southern Baghdad remain a contested battleground between American soldiers, steadily encroaching Shia militias, and persistent fighters from al-Qaeda in Iraq. These attacks, unless particularly deadly, often pass with little notice outside the neighbourhood where they occur.
Many areas formerly mixed with Sunnis and Shias have become largely the domain of one sect, since millions of Iraqis have fled their homes for other countries or parts of Iraq. It is difficult to determine if the underlying animosity between sectarian groups that has driven so much violence has diminished, or if it has become more difficult to carry out attacks.
Outside Baghdad, many Iraqis interviewed still perceive grave threats from violence. They live within walled-off neighbourhoods or the relative protection of their ethnic group.
Basim Hamdi, a 32-year-old Shia merchant from Balad, in northern Iraq, described life in his city as a "sectarian fire".
"The security situation in Balad is so bad compared with last year," he said. "No one from here can go outside the city except for emergencies, and no Sunni can get in." -