Bruton indicates hope of new ceasefire to Clinton

THE Taoiseach, Mr Bruton, has signalled that a new IRA ceasefire could be on the cards because of the progress being made by the Ulster Unionist Party and the SDLP in striking a deal on the decommissioning of arms.

He was outlining the grounds for the optimistic picture of the Northern situation which he presented to President Clinton at their meeting in the White House.

Preparing for his half hour address to a Joint Session of Congress this morning, Mr Bruton told political correspondents last night that he had some reason to hope that the conditions may exist in which an IRA ceasefire could be called. He insisted that there was a possibility of a renewed IRA ceasefire.

Asked to explain why he and President Clinton could be so optimistic about developments in Northern Ireland when the signals were so negative at home, Mr Bruton said that he was optimistic "only to the extent that I receive information that gives me grounds to be optimistic. There are optimistic signs".

He believed that the meeting between the SDLP and the UUP was very important. It was important to recognise, he said, that there were long, long periods when there were no meetings at all between these two parties.

When the talks started, there were meetings within the talks context, "but there were no high level political meetings outside that".

But before this round of the talks opened, there had been a high level political meeting between the UUP and the SDLP, "and I think that was a very important step for both of them to take", he continued.

"The reports I get from Belfast suggest that it has yielded quite considerable results in the atmosphere and the work rate in the early days of the discussions. That, I think, continues to be the case up to today from my information."

Asked by The Irish Times if he meant that the UUP and the SDLP were prepared to enter an agreement on the three stranded approach which would deal with the issue of decommissioning separately, Mr Bruton replied. "That is what it is about. That is the topic that they are now very seriously engaged upon with the two governments and with others."

He suggested that the loyalist party leader, Mr David Irvine, seemed to reflect that view in an interview yesterday. He was asked to explain the Taoiseach's optimism in Washington, Mr Bruton said, "and he certainly didn't pour cold water on it. The points he made were confirmatory of what I was saying".

The Taoiseach entered his only note of caution at this point when he stated. "However, let's be honest about this. We have had highs of optimism and lows of pessimism before with regard to Northern Ireland. These have not always been justified.

"I am not trying to create any artificial expectations. I just think that the signs are good that we will move on to the next set of problems."

He was then asked whether President Clinton gave him any reason to believe that an IRA ceasefire was being contemplated, say between now and Christmas, in the fairly short term future.

He replied. "Not in those terms. He didn't. There is a possibility of an IRA ceasefire."

Mr Bruton said he had been asked about an IRA ceasefire before and he had said that he felt the logical time for them to have a ceasefire was before the talks started on June 10th because these talks were what they were demanding. Peace talks now was their slogan, he said.

He continued. "But, perhaps, it takes time for them to make decisions and judgments and perhaps they are coming to a point where they will be able now to make a decision to have a ceasefire."

The Taoiseach added that it was important that the ceasefire be credible, one people understood would endure. To use the term they used, it was important that it would hold in all circumstances.

He thought there was a recognition that really fruitful negotiations could only occur in an atmosphere of absence of the threat of violence.

There would be an undue defensiveness and an unwillingness to compromise as long as the threat of violence remained.

I have some reason to hope that is being understood now by all and that the conditions may exist in which a ceasefire could be called. But I have no way of being, in any way categoric about that, the Taoiseach stated.

Meanwhile, informed sources in Washington have indicated that the British and Irish governments will announce today or tomorrow their reluctance to have the fringe loyalist party representatives, David Irvine of the PUP and Gary McMichael of UDP, excluded from the multi party talks in Belfast.