A good time to start working out your points calculations

Teachers and parents are busy congratulating and consoling Leaving Cert students as they receive what many perceive as the final…

Teachers and parents are busy congratulating and consoling Leaving Cert students as they receive what many perceive as the final verdict on their five or six years of second-level education.

The average Leaving Cert is not 400 or 500 points or even 300 points. It hovers about the 250-mark. If you got more than 250 points you are above average. There is too much concentration on the few geniuses whose results begin and end with the first letter of the alphabet.

A grades are only for the very few. If you passed the Leaving Cert, that is a great achievement and you deserve congratulations.

Remember, the Leaving Cert is merely a reflection of how well you did on the particular day you sat a particular exam. It is not a character assessment or even a true indication of your potential. Many students who did poorly in the Leaving Cert are now very successful in their chosen careers.

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However, the reality is that the majority of students now aspire to higher education. There were 65,881 students registered to sit the Leaving Cert this year. The 62,581 students who applied for third-level college places must wait and hope until the college offers are made.

The CAO has already received the Leaving Cert results from the Department of Education, and its computer is crunching away, equating grades with points, checking subject requirements and determining the cut-off points at which the first offers will be made. The colleges must then authorise the number of offers to be made.

The CAO will put the college offers in the post on Friday, so expect to get a notice from the CAO by Monday or Tuesday next week.

Even if you don't get an offer in round one, the CAO will notify you. So, if you haven't heard from the CAO early next week you should telephone its answering service (091-563318 and 091-563269), quoting your application number.

This is a good time to do your own points calculations. You should also check specific subject requirements for your course. Each year, a number of students are puzzled when they don't receive an offer although their points equalled or exceeded the cut-off level - points alone will not secure you a place on many courses. You must also fulfil requirements in specific subjects.

There are charts in today's Going to College supplement to help you through the calculations. There is also a chart which details last year's cut-off points. This provides a rough guide to what you might expect this year.

But it is just that - a rough guide. There are about 3,000 more CAO applicants this year (last year's numbers were down because of the effect of transition year) and with only a few hundred extra places, the points may rise. In fact, the equation is more complicated than that.

The points level for each course is a function of the number of places available on a particular course as well as the number and calibre (as measured by the points system) of the applicants. Points may, indeed, go up for some courses but they may fall for others.

The number of first-preference applicants for each subject area gives some indication of what may happen. The CAO has supplied the number of first-preference applicants and it seems reasonable to assume the number of places in most areas, with the exception of computing (where the Government has promised additional places due to labour market shortages), will remain static.

For instance, there are 13,434 first-preference applicants for over 5,000 arts/social science degree places so applicants have roughly a 2-1 chance of getting a place. There are 271 first-preference applications for 67 dentistry places so applicants have about a 4-1 chance of getting a place.

This doesn't tell you what the points will be but it gives some indication of the relative popularity of courses. Comparing this year's first-preference applicants with last year's gives some indication of possible swings in points.

For degree courses, the number of first-preference applicants is remarkably similar to last year for most course groups with the exception of engineering/technology, with 7,703 applicants this year compared to 6491 last year. Also increased is the number of applications for arts/social sci ence which went up by about 800 first preferences.

At cert/diploma level, there is also an increased number of first-preference applications for arts/ social science with 6,258 applicants compared to last year's 5,336. Engineering/technology first-preferences have gone up by a substantial 3,000 or so while first-preferences for science/applied science have fallen by about 500. It would be tempting to think that points for engineering/ technology courses will definitely go up but it is not just the number of applicants but also their points levels which matter. If all of these applicants had low points scores, the points would remain low.

So we won't know until next Monday when the points levels will be published in a special College Places supplement in The Irish Times. A complete listing of all 1997 third-level courses and their first-round offers will be published together with last year's cut-off points.

The supplement will also contain information on college life, a comprehensive accommodation guide and advice on finance.

Help is at hand for individual students worried or confused about their next step. All of the colleges in the Republic will answer queries from students and parents and College Places will include a list of telephone helpline numbers.

Queen's University Belfast and Ulster University have put helplines in place this week. QUB: Information lines will be open on weekdays this week from 9 a.m. to 1 p.m. and 2 p.m. to 5 p.m, phone 080-1232-335001. There will be open sessions in the Whitla Hall and the South Dining Hall from 2 p.m. to 5 p.m. tomorrow and next Monday, August 25th.

UU: Information lines will be open from today until Thursday between 9 a.m. and 4.45 p.m. and on Friday from 9 a.m. to 3.45 p.m. Inquiries for courses at Coleraine and Magee colleges (excluding Art and Design courses) to 080-1265-324941/2; at Jordanstown to 080-1232366 850/1/2/3 and at the Faculty of Art and Design to 080-1232267201/2/7.

Both QUB and UU will publish confirmed offers in the Belfast Telegraph, the News Letter and the Irish News on Thursday and next Monday.

Additional reporting by Catherine Foley

The Irish Times Points Race Helpline is open from 11 a.m. to 2 p.m. Readers should ring (01) 670 3797