Borrowers are better off in spite of rise in rates

The Irish mortgage market has passed a decisive turning point. Most mortgage borrowers will face higher repayments in coming months and the worry is that there may be more to come.

But even with the latest interest rate rises, most borrowers are still substantially better off than they were at the end of the summer when published variable interest rates were as high as 5 per cent. Now they are still well below that level, and substantially below it for new customers.

But there is a question mark. Despite widespread publicity in recent months, not all borrowers are getting the variable rate published by their mortgage institution. Borrowers with one society, Irish Nationwide, appear to fare particularly badly. Irish Nationwide says that all its rates are individually negotiated. This apparently means that when the society announces a cut in its mortgage rates it does not automatically pass it on to its borrowers.

Some customers have recently been charged as much as 7 per cent on a variable rate and rates of around 6 per cent are not at all uncommon. Before the new rate rises kick in, customers may be best advised to check that they actually availed of the lower rates on offer over the past year or so.

But it is not just variable rates which have increased this week, fixed rates are also on the way up.

Borrowers have now probably missed the bottom of the market for interest rates but brokers say that those on offer now are probably still good value. This is particularly true for those considering longer term fixed rates who may have larger borrowings on which they would find it difficult to meet repayments if rates were to rise too much further.

According to Jim Power, chief economist at Bank of Ireland, interest rates are likely to stay at current levels at least until the spring of 2000. This is partly because of the large size of last week's rate increase and the still fragile recovery in Germany and Italy. Another interest rate rise could kill off the nascent recovery in those markets altogether.

The European Central Bank (ECB) president, Wim Duisenberg, said the bank had decided to opt for the large rise last week so that, in the longer term, rates would stay lower for longer.

On top of that, the ECB has repeatedly pointed out that it is quite concerned about the impact of the change-over to the year 2000 at the end of the year. Money market dealers are already so nervous that they are pouring money into the biggest US banks in a bid to ensure their money does not go astray over the turn of the year.

Putting up interest rates in the middle of this could prove dangerous and could unsettle markets. So, even for technical reasons, another rate rise is unlikely.

After that time, it is less clear what will happen. Mr Power believes rates will be around 3.75 per cent at the end of next year, but others are far more pessimistic and believe rates may be as high as 4.25 per cent. That could mean variable interest rates of close to 6 per cent again.

If you cannot afford that, it may be a good idea to fix at least part of your loan over the coming months.