We asked recently what you’d like to know more about in the run-up to the Leaving Cert results. Many parents are keen for more details about the impact of the postmarking adjustment for the class of 2025.
“It’s unfair - why should the class of 2024 have an advantage over the class of 2025,” said one parent. “Thousands of students from recent years will have stronger grades. Surely there is fairer system?” wrote another.
There’s no doubt about it: this year’s students are paying for the price of Covid-era grade inflation.
Students’ results this year will be inflated, on aggregate, by 5.5 per cent after marking is completed. This is 1.5 per cent lower than last year’s 7 per cent postmarking adjustment. This, based on our rough calculations, could be the equivalent of roughly 10-12 CAO points for a higher level student.
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Why is this happening? The Minister for Education wants to gradually return Leaving Cert grades to pre-Covid norms over the course of several years to maintain the integrity of the exam results.
Many students are naturally worried that they will be disadvantaged in the hunt for CAO points compared to students on bumper grades from previous years.
But will it really be so bad?
After digging into the numbers, there are a few reasons to believe it might not necessarily be so unfair for many students.
1. Lower grades may mean lower points
There are several factors that influence the entry cut-off point for the CAO’s round one offers in late August. They include the number of places on offer across individual courses, demand for these places and the points achieved by applicants.
With so many candidates set to achieve lower points this year, on aggregate, it seems likely that CAO points will drop across many courses.
Something similar happened in 2023. A particularly difficult higher level Leaving Cert maths paper meant the proportion of students who secured top grades fell significantly.
For example, the proportion of students who achieved a H1 fell from 18 per cent in 2022 to 11 per cent in 2023.
This meant there were thousands of fewer points washing around the system.
This led to points falling across a majority – 60 per cent – of courses.
More significantly, the proportion of students who secured their first-choice increased.
John McGinnity, guidance counsellor with the Institute of Education, estimated at the time that the drop in the number of students who secured a H1 in maths was worth the equivalent of 20,000 points across the system.
“This drop in points had a ripple effect through the entire system given the interdependencies between courses as it cascaded down, reducing the points for those courses in the middle and lower ranges as it moved through,” McGinnity said in 2023.
There is a chance, then, that with fewer points in the system this year, we could see points drop across many courses.
It’s not a given. In courses where there are increased applicant numbers – and no increases in places – there may be upward pressure on points.
But there are reasons to be hopeful.
2. Fewer candidates with bumper results from last year
The unfairness at the heart of grade deflation lies in the fact this the class of 2025 are competing against thousands of students from recent years with inflated results for the same CAO places.
But how many?
One higher education source tells me that data from early March shows that about 15 per cent of the 2025 CAO applicant cohort will be presenting Leaving Cert results from 2024.
This is significantly down from the average of 17-18 per cent over the previous five years.
How much impact this has across individual courses is another story. Either way, it is a positive indicator.
3. Extra places in some courses
New programmes and additional places may help to ease some points pressure across courses in very high demand such as dentistry, pharmacy and therapeutic areas this year.
Last June, for example, the Government approved a significant expansion in training places for “health and social care professions”.
A total of 320 additional student places are being created in 2025 in physiotherapy, occupational therapy, speech and language therapy, radiation therapy, radiography, podiatry, social work, medical science and dietetics.
In addition, there is a new dentistry course offered by the RCSI for the first time this year (20 places reserved for Irish/EU students), as well as pharmacy at University of Galway – two areas associated with sky-high entry points.
Again, there is no guarantee that points will drop in these courses, but additional places are a positive indicator when it comes to easing upwards points pressure.
4. What’s up and what’s down
Later this week the CAO will provide a breakdown of general course preference trends among this year’s applicants following the July 1st “change of mind” deadline.
This gives a clue about what’s up and what’s down this year in terms of CAO points.
This, in turn, gives a clue about where points requirements are likely to rise and fall.
If you can’t wait for that, the figures as of March this year showed that applications for college degrees in areas such as construction, engineering and architecture increased considerably in 2025.
Conversely, interest in third-level courses for languages and information and communication technologies (ICT) has fallen away.
How were the exams for you?
We’d love to hear your feedback on this year’s Leaving Cert exams: what were the hardest?; what kind of toll did it take on students?; what changes would you like to see?; are you concerned about grade “deflation” and its impact on CAO points?
Please take a few minutes to complete our survey, below, and we’ll share the results soon:
