The provisional census figures are examined

THE recently published provisional results of last April's Census contained some surprises. Despite a much smaller natural increase (excess of births over deaths) than in any period of the past half century, the population of the State in April last was higher by 30,000, or almost 1 per cent, than had been expected on the basis of official estimates of population trends up to 1995.

This reflected a hitherto unrecognised reversal of the emigration trends of the 1980s albeit involving no more than a marginal net inflow over the five-year period.

During the past five years, the populations of all our major conurbations have increased.

Despite static populations within their city boundaries, when their hinterlands are included our three principal cities, Dublin, Cork and Limerick, have experienced population increases of about 4 per cent. But the populations of Waterford and Galway have risen by 5.5 per cent and 12 per cent respectively.

It is scarcely surprising that with such a very high rate of population growth in Galway City itself, and with water in the shape of Galway Bay and Lough Corrib occupying over half its hinterland, house prices in Galway have been rising faster than in any other provincial centre.

It is, incidentally, worth noting that, despite some element of net outward migration from Dublin in all four inter-censal periods since 1979, the population of Greater Dublin, which today extends 20 miles into neighbouring counties over 30 miles to the south along the Wicklow coast now exceeds 1.2 million. This means that Dublin and its hinterland now contains one-third of the State's population.

But if our five major cities have been growing quite fast, the population of most of the rest of the State has also been increasing. Indeed, only four counties have registered decreases in population: Leitrim, Roscommon, Longford and Monaghan, and the total decline for these four counties amounted to less than 500.

The population of the province of Connacht increased by over 2 per cent, to a level that is now more than 10 per cent above the figure of a quarter of a century ago.

Population increases of between 2 per cent and 3 per cent were recorded in Connemara and in the Westport area of Mayo, while in the Castlebar Rural District the population increased by almost 5 per cent. In west Cork, and in the greater part of Kerry the population has also been rising - by almost 8 per cent in the Killarney area.

Other areas with rising populations include the districts of Kinsale and Midleton in Cork; Clonmel and Kilkenny; Wexford and Gorey; Mullingar and Tullamore; Drogheda, Navan and Trim; the Roscommon hinterland of Athlone; Sligo and Letterkenny. This is a remarkably wide spread of provincial population growth.

But there are still parts of some counties where the population has been continuing to decline at a quite significant rate - notably the districts of Carrickmacross and Clones in Monaghan; parts of north-west Cavan and north Leitrim; Castlerea in Roscommon and Ballinrobe in Mayo; Granard in Longford; adjacent areas of south Offaly and north Tipperary; north-west Cork; and north Kerry and adjacent north-west Limerick.

In no county did net outward migration reach a level of even 2 per cent during this five-year period and Connacht, Clare, Cork and Kerry experienced net immigration which, in the case of Kerry and Galway, increased their populations by 2 per cent to 3 per cent. This offset the net outward migration from these counties in the preceding five-year period.

This provisional census report does not contain details of changes in the populations of Dail constituencies, the compilation of which from these data is a quite laborious process. Whether the non-publication of these data exempts the Government from an obligation to undertake yet a further revision of the Dail constituencies is a nice constitutional point - but the fact that these are only provisional figures and that experience suggests that final figures will probably not appear until the summer of 1998, probably lets everyone off this particular hook.