Lull in peace talks gives advisers time to settle in

THE start of President Clinton's new term and the departure from the White House of his two principal advisers on Northern Ireland mark a new phase in US involvement in the search for a permanent peace.

While the President has said that the quest for a peaceful solution remains a priority for him, there is no sign of any fresh US initiative. The new team is settling in and the White House is waiting to see if it will be dealing with Tony Blair instead of John Major when the time comes to make a move.

The departure of the President's national security adviser, Tony Lake, and his deputy, Nancy Soderberg, means a loss of years of experience in dealing with Northern Ireland. Both the Irish and British embassies will have to nurture a new set of contacts.

This lull gives the new team at the White House more time to get up to speed on the Northern situation. The new national security adviser, Sandy Berger, has been No 2 to Tony Lake for the past four years and has had some exposure to the North, but Soderberg was the acknowledged expert in the field and gossip has it that they did not hit it off.

Those who know Berger well say that he has "a very keen interest in Ireland. The Irish Embassy here has also been briefing him on the Government's view of the multi party talks and the peace process.

But it is Berger's No 2, Jim Steinberg, who will be dealing with Northern Ireland on a day to day basis as was done by Nancy Soderberg (who, incidentally, has not yet been named to her expected post at the mission to the UN). Steinberg has top foreign policy credentials and is coming from the State Department where he was a senior adviser to the previous Secretary, Warren Christopher.

Steinberg is in his mid 40s and once worked with the Rand Corporation think tank and the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. Like Soderberg he is a former aide of Senator Ted Kennedy. He worked for the senator in 1985-87 and accompanied him on a trip to Ireland.

But whether he will be able to devote much time to Irish affairs in his new post remains to be seen. Steinberg as deputy to Berger will have a wider brief on international affairs than Soderberg and is expected to adopt a higher profile with the media.

THERE was some concern in the White House as this article was being prepared might put too much emphasis on the role of some officials. This correspondent was taken aside and told: "The President's new national security adviser [Berger] has a keen interest in the Northern Ireland issue. He has been here as it developed and as the US peace making role has developed. He wants to be very active in seeing that continue.

"Jim Steinberg will have a strong role to play in this and will continue the work played by his predecessor [Soderberg]. But the fundamental thing to remember is that this is driven by the President of the United States. He is the person who is most interested in doing whatever the US can do to help the people of Northern Ireland come to peace, and his interest will be reflected in Mr Berger's work and Mr Steinberg's."

This strong message may aim to dampen speculation that some of the Northern Ireland (dossier) policy making might even start reverting to the State Department if Berger and Steinberg find themselves preoccupied with issues such as the Middle East, NATO expansion and China.

Against such a development is the fact of the President's strong personal interest in Ireland and the need for his advisers to be on top of every relevant detail of the peace process. In addition, the new Secretary of State, Madeleine Albright, has not shown any special interest in Irish affairs up to now and has enough global matters to keep her preoccupied without getting into the minutiae of multi party talks and decommissioning.

Decommissioning raises the future of the author of the report on it and the current chairman of the talks at Stormont, former US senator George Mitchell. While he has recently described his involvement in the bogged down talks as a "labour of love", there are persistent rumours that he has become disillusioned with the lack of progress and would like out. He is not a US "envoy" to the talks but is a valuable point of contact between Washington and Belfast in his neutral chairman's role.

The suspension of the talks for the British election campaign during April would be an opportunity for him to reconsider his commitment to his present role. He will by then have given his valuable services to the peace process stretching over two years if one includes his work on the 1995 Washington investment conference on Northern Ireland.

The British election will be a watershed for more than Mr Mitchell. Mr Clinton is said to be ready to seize the likelihood of a Labour victory to invite Mr Tony Blair to the White House and get the Angle American relationship on to a new footing.

Whether a new initiative on Northern Ireland, backed by the two governments and underpinned by Washington, will figure high on the agenda of that meeting would depend on the level of IRA violence, according to one informed observer. Any increase on the present level, however, would make it difficult for a positive response from leaders pledged to defeat terrorism.