FIANNA FAIL believes the Government will call a snap general election next February and, as a result, Bertie Ahern sowed a little dissension in the Rainbow Coalition during the week, while widening his own political options.

It all started when Brian Hayes, one of John Bruton's nominees to the Seanad, suggested that Fine Gael, Labour and Democratic should enter a pre election pact to give the public a centre left government, rather than a centre right model of the kind offered by Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats.

As a political contribution, it didn't rate highly. The Labour Party responded duly that the party would make up its own mind on such issues, while Democratic Left felt the proposal was premature. The statement, from an obscure source, helped establish a thought pattern.

A series of newspaper articles followed in which Fianna Fail was firmly bracketed with the Progressive Democrats, while Fine Gael, Labour and Democratic Left began to emerge as the alternative voting bloc.

Alarm bells sounded in Fianna Fail. They reached a peak of shrillness when the party's election strategists concluded that, even with the support of the Progressive Democrats, they might still fall short of a Dail majority. Constituency reports prepared by Ray MacSharry were pored over and gains and losses computed, and the gap still yawned.

The arithmetic was simple. Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats needed to gain at least seven seats to bring their total to 83. Allowing for the Ceann Comhairle, that would give them a wafer thin working majority of one.

Fianna Fail's best estimate was that Labour would lose nine seats, but Fine Gael would get some of those. Sinn Fein and the Green Party might gain a few and Democratic Left would probably drop a couple. Nothing else was certain, other than the possibility of the cup of power being dashed from Fianna Fail's lips. A second term in opposition was unprecedented: it could crush the young leadership of Mr Ahern.

The drawing board was brought out again. Those constituencies where candidates had already been selected were revisited. And the party's deputy leader, Mary O'Rourke, is now resigned to having Senator Donie Cassidy imposed as a running mate.

In Dun Laoghaire, David Andrews is said to be holding out against a "name" being added, but Bertie Ahern is on the case. And a cold eye is being cast on other Dublin constituencies.

Even before Gerry Collins and Michael Noonan tried to make a gift of a West Limerick scat to Fine Gael or the PDs, Fianna Fail strategists were urging Mr Ahern to widen his options. He couldn't, they said, allow the party to be painted into a corner by Fine Gael.

The importance of voting transfers has been borne in on the party in recent years. Its director of elections, P.J. Mara, is fully aware that without broad, cross party transfers, Fianna Fail would have lost the last two by elections. They are the lifeblood of the party's hopes for an eventual overall majority.

But the Progressive Democrats are likely to run candidates in fewer than 20 of the country's 41 constituencies. That would leave more than half the State where Fianna Fail would be forced into the traditional posture of itself versus the rest. The top brass couldn't bear the idea.

Mr Ahern fed the line to hungry media: the Progressive Democrats were Fianna Fail's first choice as partner in government but, if that didn't work, he was prepared to do a deal with Labour. There was nothing new in what he said. But it had the impact of a starting gun being fired.

The Progressive Democrats were underwhelmed by the initiative. Officially, they were "not at all disconcerted" by Mr Ahern's comments. But it had taken some of the shine off their claim to be Fianna Fail's automatic partner in the next government.

There would be no pre election pacts, a spokesman said. After the election they would approach the formation of government in a pragmatic way. The only qualification was that the Labour Party would be excluded from such a deal. Dick Spring had barred the PDs from government in 1994 and they would return the favour.

Meanwhile, the Fianna Fail leader was attempting to sow dissension in Government ranks by singling out Labour as a future government partner. He was also seeking to create a climate in which Fianna Fail would benefit from Labour transfers.

In 1992, when Fianna Fail lost 10 seats in the general election to Fine Gael's nine, final Labour transfers overwhelmingly benefited Fine Gael by a ratio of 2 to 1. As director of elections P.J. Mara wants to transform those figures. But it isn't easy.

First, you have to portray Fianna Fail as nice guys who are willing to forget the past. The message is: power and policy, not personality. A bit like Fine Gael, but with a better chance of getting there.

By offering to do a deal with anyone bar Fine Gael, Mr Ahern was taking a risk. For a start, his willingness to re embrace Dick Spring got up the nose of the Albert Reynolds/Mire Geoghegan Quinn section of the party. And he confirmed Fine Gael as the only other focal point of government.

John Bruton was pleased. The party gambit, set up while he was in faraway France, had worked a treat. He was still on good terms with his Government partners. And what had been unthinkable six months ago, a second term in office for Fine Gael, was now only an unlikely prospect.

Fine Gael was on the way back. It has been gaining steadily in the opinion polls, inching back to a current national profile of 26 per cent. The only cloud on the horizon, a real thunder cloud, is the BSE scare and its impact on farm incomes. And although agriculture has become Brussels driven under the CAP, last Thursday Mr Bruton and Ivan Yates announced a tour of the country to listen to problems from the Fine Gael heartland.

Some Labour deputies, subjected to unexpected love bombing by Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, began to relax. If they were seen by the public as the fulcrum of the next government, then the party might yet confound the Jeremiahs.

The outlook was still bleak. John Ryan's decision to resign in Tipperary North would cost them a seat. And Michael Ferris had an impossible task in the new three seater of Tipperary South if Sean Treacy sought another term as Ceann Comhairle. But they felt losses in Dublin could be kept to under six, denying Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats the numbers required to form a government.

AS FOR Fianna Fail's expectation of a snap general election in February, driven by a favourable budget and fears of an interest rate rise, the backbenchers thought it unlikely. A winter election was always dodgy. April or June figured in their mental calendars.

Tradition would favour June. But if the Coalition partners decided to choreograph their departure from government to create an image of harmony, rather than dissent, then April was a possibility.

This year, Ruairi Quinn brought forward the date for social welfare budgetary increases from mid July to the start of June. And the speculation is that benefits will flow from the beginning of the tax year in 1997.

If tax cuts and social welfare increases coincide in the first week of April in 1997, then the Government might well decide on an early visit to the electorate.

The smell of a general election pervades Leinster House. When seats are at risk, eight to 10 months can be an impossibly short time in politics.