Keane and Franz Ferdinand may be the joint bookies' favourite to win this year's Mercury Music Prize at 3/1, but neither of them will prevail so spare yourself the trouble, advises Brian Boyd.
It's quite simple: Keane won't and can't win for the very same reason why Coldplay have never won (despite having been twice nominated), because both bands are more "road" than "street", and the Mercury has its cred to think about. Franz Ferdinand won't win for the even more facile reason that the favourite, or joint favourite, never wins. And also, aren't Franz Ferdinand a bit last month?
At first glance, you really wonder if this shortlist does represent the best 12 Irish/British albums of the last year. But closer inspection shows some astute choices.
Thankfully, the panel has dropped its previous insistence on including a token classical/jazz album, making this year more of a level playing field than ever before. From a 16-year-old white Devon girl who sounds like a 50-year-old black soul diva (Joss Stone) to a wheelchair-bound prog-rock avant-garde maverick (Robert Wyatt), there's most something for everyone in the rock/pop/soul/dance/indie/garage audience among this year's 12 acts.
Bedsit indie for sensitive art college types is represented by Belle and Sebastian, while straight down the line r 'n' b urban gets a look in courtesy of Jamelia. If you're on a "so underground he needs to take a lift to reach street level" hip-hop tip, you'll find Ty will be to your tastes, while dance is surely on its last throw of the dice with the inclusion of Basement Jaxx; whatever about their album, their live shows this year have been stunning and they're worthy of a nomination just in that regard.
The only Irish act to make an appearance are the Dundee-based Snow Patrol, who have bewildered a lot of people by suddenly taking a lot of "make me write better songs" pills for work on their Final Straw album.
Sassy, jazz-tinted sounds make the list with Amy Winehouse's inclusion, while Scallydelica muscles its way in care of The Zutons, who are only three-quarters as good as The Coral. But that's the Mercury for you.
The big, surprise omission this year (and there's always one) is Elbow, whose Cast of Thousands album was simply further proof that they are one of the best British bands around. Elbow, incidentally, tied with PJ Harvey to win the Mercury three years ago, with only the chairman's casting vote giving it to Harvey.
The indies provide five of the 12 acts this year, while a fair few of the other acts are "mindies" - indies controlled by majors.
The best album on the list is, without a doubt, by The Streets. Not only has A Grand Don't Come for Free single-handedly rehabilitated the tragi-comic status of the concept album, but it's also a remarkable suite of songs by a one-man band who, as a lyricist, is up there beside Morrissey and Weller. And, no matter how contemporary and "geezer garage" Mike Skinner may be, a part of his appeal is his ability to synthesise two great British bands into his sound: The Specials and Squeeze.
If the prize really is for the best album of the last year then it has to be The Streets. But the Mercury is a bloody-minded affair: it consistently overlooks shortlisted acts such as U2, Oasis, Radiohead and Coldplay to throw the prize to acts such as Talvin Singh and Roni Size.
If the judges play true to form by presenting a fairly orthodox shortlist before giving the overall prize to a relative unheard, then look to Amy Winehouse, who the bookies are pulling in all the time.
This, though, could be the year when they invert everything and pick the favourite - Franz Ferdinand. Then again they could have a rush of blood to the head (intertextual pun intended) and choose Keane simply to confuse everyone.
If, by any stretch of the imagination, they decide to go for the best album on the list, it will be "come on down" time for Mike Skinner on September 7th.
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